Final Score: Pirates 11 - Nationals 5
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Pirates @ Nationals
MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Pirates | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 347 | 322 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average runs | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Last meeting | 7 | 1 |
| Stat | Pirates | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 90 | 90 |
| Avg runs scored | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Avg runs conceded | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 51% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 49% | 41% |
Recent Results
Pirates
@ Washington Nationals
Jul 4, 2026 · Margin: +6 · Total: 8
7-1
@ Washington Nationals
Jul 3, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 14
5-9
@ Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 2, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 7
6-1
@ Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 1, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 16
6-10
@ Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 30, 2026 · Margin: -8 · Total: 8
0-8
@ Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 29, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 18
11-7
vs Cincinnati Reds
Jun 28, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 13
9-4
vs Cincinnati Reds
Jun 27, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 16
7-9
vs Cincinnati Reds
Jun 26, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 10
4-6
vs Seattle Mariners
Jun 25, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 6
5-1
Nationals
vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 4, 2026 · Margin: -6 · Total: 8
1-7
vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 3, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 14
9-5
@ Boston Red Sox
Jul 1, 2026 · Margin: +8 · Total: 12
10-2
@ Boston Red Sox
Jun 30, 2026 · Margin: +7 · Total: 9
8-1
@ Boston Red Sox
Jun 29, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 9
3-6
@ Baltimore Orioles
Jun 28, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 10
6-4
@ Baltimore Orioles
Jun 27, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
@ Baltimore Orioles
Jun 26, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 4
1-3
vs Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 25, 2026 · Margin: -5 · Total: 15
5-10
vs Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 24, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 9
4-5