SharpModels is a sports analytics platform built around benchmark team ratings, win probabilities and projected matchup strength across the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB.
The platform is designed to provide a consistent, objective view of team strength and matchup difficulty throughout a season.
Rather than attempting to react to every injury report, lineup change or news headline, SharpModels focuses on creating a stable benchmark that can be compared against other information and opinions.
About SharpModels
SharpModels was created to provide a clear, data-driven framework for understanding sport through ratings and probabilities rather than narrative and opinion.
The platform is built around a simple principle:
- Measure team strength consistently
- Translate ratings into probabilities
- Project expected matchup strength
- Track how teams evolve through time
- Provide a benchmark that remains comparable throughout a season
By maintaining a consistent methodology across every team and game, SharpModels allows users to compare teams, matchups and seasons using a common framework.
What We Do
SharpModels uses dynamic Elo-style rating systems to model team strength across major North American sports leagues.
Every team is assigned a continuously updated rating based on game results, opponent quality and historical performance. Those ratings are then used to generate matchup probabilities and projected margins.
The goal is not to predict every individual game perfectly. The goal is to create a reliable benchmark that measures underlying team strength and provides a consistent point of comparison across an entire season.
How The Models Work
Team Strength Ratings
Each team receives a dynamic rating that adjusts throughout the season as new results are added.
Beating strong opponents improves a team's rating more than beating weaker opponents, while poor results against weaker teams have a larger negative impact.
Matchup Probabilities
Rating differences and home advantage are converted into estimated win probabilities for every matchup.
These probabilities are calibrated using historical league results to ensure that rating differences translate into realistic expectations.
Projected Margins
For supported sports, SharpModels also provides projected average margins which represent the model's expected difference between the two teams.
Historical Tracking
Ratings, probabilities and matchup history are tracked over time, allowing users to see how team strength changes throughout a season.
Our Approach
SharpModels is designed around consistency, transparency and long-term measurement.
The platform does not rely on subjective narratives or manual adjustments to explain individual results. Instead, every output is generated from a structured modelling framework that is applied consistently across all teams and games.
This approach creates a stable benchmark that can be used to compare teams, matchups and performance across an entire season.
What You’ll Find On The Platform
- Team ratings and rankings
- Matchup win probabilities
- Projected margins
- Historical matchup archives
- Season rating history charts
- Team strength comparisons
Future updates are expected to include season simulations, playoff forecasting and additional team performance metrics.
Why Use A Benchmark Model?
Sports contain a huge amount of information. Injuries, lineup changes, travel schedules, weather conditions and coaching decisions can all influence individual games.
SharpModels is not designed to replace those factors. Instead, it provides a stable baseline measure of team strength that can be compared against them.
This makes it possible to separate long-term team quality from short-term events and evaluate matchups from a consistent starting point.
About The Creator
SharpModels is developed by Chris Fawcett, a quantitative sports modeller with more than 25 years of experience building rating systems, predictive models and large-scale sports databases.
His work has covered multiple sports including horse racing, football, basketball, baseball, hockey and tennis, using statistical modelling, machine learning and probabilistic forecasting techniques.
Across that time, the focus has remained the same: building structured systems that can process large amounts of data, evolve over time and produce measurable, repeatable outputs.
SharpModels is the result of that ongoing work, providing benchmark ratings and matchup probabilities designed to be tracked, tested and compared over time.
Looking Ahead
SharpModels is an evolving platform.
Future development is expected to include season simulations, playoff forecasting, championship probabilities and expanded analytical tools built on top of the core rating systems.
The current focus remains on producing high-quality benchmark ratings, matchup probabilities, projected margins and team strength analysis across the major US sports leagues.