SharpModels' NFL hub: benchmark team ratings, matchup win probabilities and season outlook, all in one place.
Every Week 2 game, model against market, with each side's Week 1 result and rating move behind the gap. The second entry in a season long watching brief.
Read article NFLSixteen Week 1 games, SharpModels against the market, game by game. The first entry in a season long watching brief.
Read article NFLBuffalo and New England are in lockstep with the market. Miami isn't, and the reasons why are all real.
Read article NFLJoe Burrow's healthy return moves Cincinnati 13 points against our own model. Here's every AFC North team's real offseason story.
Read article NFLHouston's model-market gap is the widest in the division with no clear negative news to explain it. Indianapolis and Tennessee tell a different story.
Read article NFLDenver carries the largest model-vs-market gap of any AFC division. Kansas City's is explained by one sentence: Patrick Mahomes is healthy again.
Read article NFLPhiladelphia and Dallas post two of the most dramatic, opposite gaps in this whole project: a +29 and a -21 in the same division.
Read article NFLMinnesota's quarterback competition is still unresolved in camp. Chicago's market price is betting hard on year two of Ben Johnson.
Read article NFLTampa Bay and Atlanta are both managing real bad news. New Orleans and Carolina are riding real good news. The NFC South splits clean in half.
Read article NFLReigning Super Bowl champion Seattle vs. all-in challenger Los Angeles: the cleanest model-vs-market story in the whole league.
Read article NFLA one-off, point-in-time breakdown of every team's 2026 schedule difficulty, conference by conference and division by division.
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