Introduction
The NFC East contains two of the most dramatic, opposite-direction gaps in this entire project. Philadelphia sits at +29 points, the single biggest gap in the NFL, with our model still crediting an 11-6, back-to-back-division-champion roster while the market has priced in a new, first-time offensive coordinator and a genuinely bad run of training camp injuries. Dallas is the mirror image at -21 points: the Cowboys allowed more points than any other team in the league in 2025, and the market has already given real credit to an offseason defensive rebuild (new coordinator, new scheme, several proven additions via trade and free agency) that simply hasn't produced any game results yet for our model to see. Washington and the Giants both sit closer to the market, for very different reasons: a wash of good and bad news in Washington, and a credible reset (a new head coach in John Harbaugh, an unquestioned rookie starter in Jaxson Dart) in New York.
This preview covers three things for every team in the NFC East: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the NFC East, Philadelphia Eagles has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #5 of 32 league-wide), and Dallas Cowboys has the hardest (rank #20). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.
| Team | Schedule Difficulty Rank | Home / Away / Neutral | Avg Opponent Rating | Expected Wins at 1500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | #5 of 32 | 9 / 7 / 1 | 1481 | 9.0 |
| New York Giants | #15 of 32 | 9 / 8 / 0 | 1505 | 8.5 |
| Washington Commanders | #18 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1504 | 8.4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | #20 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1511 | 8.3 |
2026 Season Win Probabilities
These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.
| Team | SharpModels Power Rank | 2026 Model Expected Wins | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | #6 of 32 | 11.0 | vs. Seattle Seahawks, Week 15 (46%) | vs. New York Giants, Week 9 (80%) |
| Washington Commanders | #22 of 32 | 7.4 | at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 1 (25%) | vs. New York Giants, Week 5 (65%) |
| Dallas Cowboys | #23 of 32 | 7.3 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 13 (17%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 11 (74%) |
| New York Giants | #28 of 32 | 6.4 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 14 (13%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 3 (68%) |
NFC East: Model vs. Market
| Team | 2025 Record | SharpModels Rating | Model Division Win % | Market Division Win % | Model vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 | 1608 | 67% | 38% | +29pp |
| Washington Commanders | 5-12 | 1448 | 14% | 16% | -2pp |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7-9-1 | 1447 | 12% | 33% | -21pp |
| New York Giants | 4-13 | 1381 | 7% | 13% | -6pp |
Team by Team
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles reached the Wild Card round last season before losing to the San Francisco 49ers. They finished the regular season at 11-6 (379 points scored, 325 allowed, a +54 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1608. Our model gives them a 67% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 38%. Put another way, our model is 29 points more confident in Philadelphia Eagles winning the division than the market is.
Market is likely well below our model because of real, dated offseason uncertainty, a new, unproven offensive coordinator, an offense that visibly regressed and exited the playoffs early in January 2026, and a wave of camp injuries/losses (Smith, Lemon, Greenard, Dean's departure), none of which show up in a results-based Elo rating built on the 11-6 record.
The Eagles fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and hired first-time NFL OC Sean Mannion (former Packers QB coach) after the offense's performance declined in 2025 despite the team repeating as NFC East champs; they also replaced longtime O-line coach Jeff Stoutland with Kuper. Training camp has brought notable injuries: starting WRs DeVonta Smith and Makai Lemon are both dealing with hamstring issues, OLB Jonathan Greenard is on the PUP list with a pec strain, and 2025 first-round LB Jihaad Campbell missed the spring recovering from shoulder surgery before returning for camp. The team also lost starting LB Nakobe Dean (patella surgery) to free agency, as he signed with the Raiders, thinning linebacker depth behind Zack Baun and Campbell. Jalen Hurts remains firmly entrenched as QB1 with no competition; DT Jordan Davis was extended (3-year, $78M) to keep the defensive front intact.
Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 5-12 (356 points scored, 451 allowed, a -95 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1448. Our model gives them a 14% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 16%. Put another way, the market is 2 points more confident in Washington Commanders winning the division than our model is.
The small -2pp gap doesn't point to one dominant story, it's a wash between real positive news (Daniels' healthy recovery) and real negative news (two new coordinators, Deebo Samuel and Lattimore departures), so model and market landing close together looks accurate rather than a blind spot.
QB Jayden Daniels missed 10 games in 2025 due to knee, hamstring, and elbow injuries, which was central to Washington's 5-12 collapse; GM Adam Peters says Daniels has had "an incredible offseason" of recovery and training, and he remains the unquestioned QB1 for 2026 with no reported camp setbacks found. HC Dan Quinn is back for a third season but is reported to be on the hot seat, and he fired both coordinators, promoting David Blough to offensive coordinator (replacing Kliff Kingsbury) and hiring Daronte Jones as defensive coordinator (replacing Joe Whitt Jr.). On the roster, WR Deebo Samuel left in free agency (returning to San Francisco) and CB Marshon Lattimore was released for cap savings, with Washington relying on Terry McLaurin (himself coming off an injury-riddled year) plus rookie WR Antonio Williams to fill the receiver room. No standout offseason acquisition was found that clearly outweighs these losses.
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 7-9-1 (471 points scored, 511 allowed, a -40 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1447. Our model gives them a 12% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 33%. Put another way, the market is 21 points more confident in Dallas Cowboys winning the division than our model is.
The market is far more bullish than our model likely because it's pricing in a genuinely rebuilt defense (new coordinator, new scheme, multiple starters added via trade/free agency/draft) as the fix for the historically bad 2025 defense our model is still rating them on, that fix hasn't produced any actual game results yet for the model to credit.
Dallas overhauled its defense after allowing a league-worst ~30 points/game in 2025: they fired DC Matt Eberflus and hired 34-year-old Christian Parker (poached from the Eagles) to install a new 3-4 scheme, then added DL Kenny Clark (from the earlier Micah Parsons trade return) plus free agents Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant, P.J. Locke, Derion Kendrick and Jonathan Bullard, traded for EDGE Rashan Gary (Packers) and LB Dee Winters (49ers), and used 5 of 7 2026 draft picks on defense including first-rounder Malachi Lawrence. HC Brian Schottenheimer returns, and QB Dak Prescott is QB1 with no competition, though he's carried a sore right knee since spring that limited him in minicamp/camp reps (team says not serious). WR George Pickens remains on a one-year, $27.3M franchise tag with no long-term deal in place, adding a bit of receiver-corps uncertainty beyond CeeDee Lamb.
New York Giants
The New York Giants missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 4-13 (381 points scored, 439 allowed, a -58 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1381. Our model gives them a 7% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 13%. Put another way, the market is 6 points more confident in New York Giants winning the division than our model is.
Market likely sits above our model because of a credible reset story a results-based rating can't yet see, a respected new head coach (Harbaugh), an unquestioned rookie starting QB (Dart) replacing a Wilson/Winston timeshare, and continued defensive investment around Abdul Carter, none of it reflected in the 4-13 record the model is trained on.
The Giants fired HC Brian Daboll after a 2-8 start in 2025 (interim: OC Mike Kafka), then in January 2026 hired John Harbaugh, fired by Baltimore just 11 days earlier, to a 5-year deal, a marquee, well-regarded coaching hire for a rebuilding team. Rookie Jaxson Dart (2025 first-round pick) is now the clear, undisputed starting QB heading into camp under new OC Matt Nagy's system, with veteran Jameis Winston kept as backup insurance and Russell Wilson no longer part of the plan. On defense, the Giants traded DT Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati for the No. 10 overall pick, used that pick plus their No. 5 pick on LB Arvell Reese and OL Francis Mauigoa, and added LB Tremaine Edmunds in free agency to pair with returning edge rushers Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Carter (3rd overall in 2025) flashed as a pressure generator as a rookie (72 pressures) but underwhelmed in sacks (4), and is a name to watch for a Year 2 leap.
What This Means
Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.
A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.
This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.