2026 NFL Strength of Schedule: Full Preseason Breakdown by Division
A one-off, point-in-time breakdown of every team's 2026 schedule difficulty, conference by conference and division by division.
Read article MethodologyHow Strength of Schedule Works
Why we give every team a flat, average rating to isolate how hard their remaining games really are.
Read article MethodologyHow the MLB Season Simulator Works
The same season-simulation approach as the NFL model, adapted for a 162-game schedule and MLB's own playoff format.
Read article MethodologyHow the NFL Season Simulator Works
Why we simulate the season thousands of times, and why team ratings evolve as it unfolds.
Read article CodingBuilding a Clean NFL Elo Rating Model From Results
The fundamental problem every sports model has to solve: how do you actually measure team strength?
Read article CodingAdding Home Advantage to NFL Elo Ratings
Extending the baseline Elo model to account for the real, measurable edge of playing at home.
Read article CodingAdding Margin of Victory to NFL Elo Ratings
Why a 3-point win and a 30-point win shouldn't move a team's rating by the same amount.
Read article CodingAdding Seasonal Carryover to NFL Elo Ratings
How much of a team's rating should reset between seasons, and how much should carry over?
Read article CodingEvaluating NFL Elo Win Probabilities
Putting the finished model to the test: how well do its win probabilities actually hold up against real results?
Read article CodingInterpreting NFL Elo Rating Differences
What a 50-point or 150-point gap between two teams' ratings actually means in practice.
Read article CodingVisualising NFL Elo Ratings Through Time
Turning a season of rating updates into a chart that shows how every team's form has actually moved.
Read article CodingTurning NFL Elo Ratings Into Win Probabilities
How a rating gap between two teams becomes a single-game win probability.
Read article CodingBuild an NFL Elo Forecasting Model From Scratch
Start from scratch: the simplest possible rating system, built and tested from real results.
Read article CodingGetting Started With SharpModels Code
An introduction to the codebase behind SharpModels' ratings and forecasts.
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