Introduction
The NFC West is this project's cleanest "champion vs. challenger" story. Reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle carries a +28-point gap, the second-largest in the league, because our model is still rating the roster that won it all, while the market has already priced in the loss of Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III, three defensive starters, and both coordinators. Los Angeles sits at almost the exact opposite, -23 points, after a genuine win-now stack of additions: a trade for All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, and a second blockbuster trade for two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, aimed directly at the pass defense that was exposed in their NFC Championship loss to Seattle. San Francisco is close to even, balancing a healthy Brock Purdy and notable free-agent additions against real injuries still on the training-camp report. Arizona, already near zero either way, is nonetheless in the middle of real upheaval: a fired head coach, a departed franchise quarterback, and a wide-open three-way quarterback competition.
This preview covers three things for every team in the NFC West: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the NFC West, Seattle Seahawks has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #14 of 32 league-wide), and Arizona Cardinals has the hardest (rank #32). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.
| Team | Schedule Difficulty Rank | Home / Away / Neutral | Avg Opponent Rating | Expected Wins at 1500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | #14 of 32 | 9 / 8 / 0 | 1500 | 8.6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | #21 of 32 | 8 / 7 / 2 | 1514 | 8.3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | #25 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1520 | 8.1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | #32 of 32 | 9 / 8 / 0 | 1530 | 8.0 |
2026 Season Win Probabilities
These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.
| Team | SharpModels Power Rank | 2026 Model Expected Wins | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | #1 of 32 | 12.2 | at Los Angeles Rams, Week 18 (51%) | vs. Arizona Cardinals, Week 9 (88%) |
| Los Angeles Rams | #3 of 32 | 10.7 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 16 (35%) | vs. Arizona Cardinals, Week 6 (84%) |
| San Francisco 49ers | #10 of 32 | 9.6 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 5 (27%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 9 (83%) |
| Arizona Cardinals | #29 of 32 | 5.4 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 9 (12%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 17 (64%) |
NFC West: Model vs. Market
| Team | 2025 Record | SharpModels Rating | Model Division Win % | Market Division Win % | Model vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 | 1707 | 56% | 28% | +28pp |
| Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 | 1638 | 27% | 50% | -23pp |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 1568 | 16% | 20% | -4pp |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 1357 | 1% | 2% | -1pp |
Team by Team
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl last season, beating the New England Patriots. They finished the regular season at 14-3 (483 points scored, 292 allowed, a +191 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1707. Our model gives them a 56% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 28%. Put another way, our model is 28 points more confident in Seattle Seahawks winning the division than the market is.
Model is far more bullish than the market almost certainly because our Elo model is still rating the intact 2025 championship roster, while the market has priced in the loss of Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III, three defensive starters (Woolen, Bryant, Mafe), and new OC/DC hires, none of which show up in 2025 game results.
The Seahawks are the reigning Super Bowl LX champions (beat New England 29-13 in Feb 2026) after a dominant 14-3 season, but the roster that produced that record has been significantly picked apart in free agency: Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City (3yr/$43M), and defensive starters CB Tariq Woolen, S Coby Bryant (to Chicago) and edge rusher Boye Mafe all departed for other teams. Both coordinators changed, OC Klint Kubiak left to become the Raiders' head coach (replaced by Brian Fleury), and DC Kirk Olivadotti was replaced by Zach Orr (though Olivadotti stayed on as a senior defensive assistant). QB Sam Darnold, fresh off winning the Super Bowl and playing well, notably was NOT given a contract extension and enters 2026 on an expiring-ish deal (2 years, $27.5M/$35.5M left) with no reported injury or camp competition, he's healthy and QB1 outright. So the model still sees last year's elite, Super Bowl-winning roster, while the market is pricing in real subtraction of MVP-level talent (RB, CB, S, EDGE) plus two new coordinators.
Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams reached the Conference Championship last season before losing to the Seattle Seahawks. They finished the regular season at 12-5 (518 points scored, 346 allowed, a +172 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1638. Our model gives them a 27% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 50%. Put another way, the market is 23 points more confident in Los Angeles Rams winning the division than our model is.
Market is much higher than our model almost certainly because the Rams made a stack of blockbuster additions this offseason (All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie, CB Jaylen Watson, and a trade for 2x DPOY Myles Garrett) that directly patch their weak 2025 pass defense, talent our results-based model has no way to credit since none of it shows up in 2025 game outcomes.
The Rams went 12-5 in 2025 and reached the NFC Championship Game before losing 31-27 to Seattle, a game in which their thin cornerback room was exposed (346 yards allowed to Sam Darnold). This offseason they went all-in to fix that exact weakness: they traded a 2026 first-round pick (plus additional future picks) to Kansas City for two-time All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie and signed former Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson (3yr/$51M) to start opposite him, then executed a second blockbuster trade sending Jared Verse plus 2027/2028/2029 draft capital to Cleveland for two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. QB Matthew Stafford, coming off an MVP-level 2025, put retirement talk to rest and signed a 1-year, $55M extension through 2027, so there's no QB uncertainty. First-round rookie QB Ty Simpson (No. 13) was drafted as Stafford's long-term successor, not an immediate contributor. In short, the Rams imported multiple proven star-level players (McDuffie, Watson, Garrett) via trade/free agency rather than developing them in-system.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers reached the Divisional round last season before losing to the Seattle Seahawks. They finished the regular season at 12-5 (437 points scored, 371 allowed, a +66 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1568. Our model gives them a 16% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 20%. Put another way, the market is 4 points more confident in San Francisco 49ers winning the division than our model is.
The modest -4pp gap looks consistent with a mix of good (Purdy healthy, notable FA additions like Mike Evans) and bad (Pearsall out for the year, Kittle/Williams still on PUP) offseason news roughly offsetting each other, so it likely reflects normal model/market noise rather than one dominant story.
San Francisco went 12-5 in 2025 but lost to Seattle in the divisional round, and their 2025 season was badly disrupted by injuries to Brock Purdy (shoulder/turf toe), LB Fred Warner, DE Nick Bosa, and TE George Kittle. Purdy did not need offseason surgery and has looked sharp and fully healthy through 2026 camp, so QB1 is clear and secure. However, other injuries are lingering into 2026 camp: Kittle (Achilles) and DL Mykel Williams (knee) are on the active/PUP list, WR Ricky Pearsall is out for the season after knee surgery, and free-agent addition WR Christian Kirk has a calf strain. The 49ers responded aggressively in free agency, adding WRs Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, DT Osa Odighizuwa, CB Nate Hobbs, DL Keion White, and re-signing LB Dre Greenlaw, while also changing both coordinators, Raheem Morris (ex-Falcons HC) is the new DC and Klay Kubiak was promoted to OC.
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 3-14 (355 points scored, 488 allowed, a -133 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1357. Our model gives them a 1% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 2%. Put another way, the market is 1 point more confident in Arizona Cardinals winning the division than our model is.
Both model and market already rate Arizona as near-zero to win the division, so the tiny -1pp gap isn't very informative, but the underlying story, a fired coach, a departed franchise QB, and a Brissett-favored but not yet formally settled QB picture, is exactly the kind of offseason turmoil a 2025-results model wouldn't capture, it just doesn't move probabilities much when the team was already this far out of contention.
Arizona went 3-14 in 2025, and the fallout was severe: head coach Jonathan Gannon was fired in January 2026 (15-36 over three seasons) and replaced by Mike LaFleur, previously the Rams' offensive coordinator who ran a top-scoring offense in 2025. Most significantly, QB Kyler Murray, the starter since 2019, out since Week 5 of 2025 with a season-ending foot injury, left in free agency to sign with the Minnesota Vikings, ending an era. Jacoby Brissett held out over pay before agreeing to a reworked 1-year deal (up to $21M) in late July; LaFleur has said Brissett and free-agent addition Gardner Minshew both fit the offense, and the team privately views Brissett as the starter, but has not officially named one, third-round rookie Carson Beck, who already has preseason starts (Hall of Fame Game), remains part of the picture. Arizona also invested heavily in the run game (No. 3 overall pick RB Jeremiyah Love, FA RB Tyler Allgeier) and offensive line (G Isaac Seumalo, rookie G Chase Bisontis).
What This Means
Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.
A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.
This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.