Introduction
The AFC East is the rare division where the model and the market mostly agree, with one loud exception. Buffalo sits at a flat 0-point gap between our model and the market, and New England is only 2 points off, which tracks: both franchises kept their core identity intact through the offseason (a new head coach in Buffalo, but Josh Allen and the roster largely steady; full continuity in New England under Mike Vrabel). The real story is Miami, which underwent one of the most complete teardowns in the league: a new GM, a new head coach, no more Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle traded away, and Tyreek Hill's own 2026 availability still in doubt, all while our rating still reflects the roster that produced their 2025 results.
This preview covers three things for every team in the AFC East: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the AFC East, New York Jets has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #22 of 32 league-wide), and Miami Dolphins has the hardest (rank #29). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.
| Team | Schedule Difficulty Rank | Home / Away / Neutral | Avg Opponent Rating | Expected Wins at 1500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | #22 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1509 | 8.2 |
| Buffalo Bills | #27 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1516 | 8.1 |
| New England Patriots | #28 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1520 | 8.1 |
| Miami Dolphins | #29 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1520 | 8.0 |
2026 Season Win Probabilities
These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.
| Team | SharpModels Power Rank | 2026 Model Expected Wins | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | #2 of 32 | 10.9 | at Los Angeles Rams, Week 5 (44%) | vs. New York Jets, Week 18 (87%) |
| New England Patriots | #7 of 32 | 9.9 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 1 (30%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 5 (85%) |
| Miami Dolphins | #24 of 32 | 7.0 | at Buffalo Bills, Week 11 (22%) | vs. New York Jets, Week 12 (72%) |
| New York Jets | #30 of 32 | 4.9 | at Buffalo Bills, Week 18 (13%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 8 (59%) |
AFC East: Model vs. Market
| Team | 2025 Record | SharpModels Rating | Model Division Win % | Market Division Win % | Model vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 1652 | 55% | 55% | 0pp |
| New England Patriots | 14-3 | 1598 | 35% | 37% | -2pp |
| Miami Dolphins | 7-10 | 1447 | 8% | 4% | +4pp |
| New York Jets | 3-14 | 1313 | 2% | 4% | -2pp |
Team by Team
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills reached the Divisional round last season before losing to the Denver Broncos. They finished the regular season at 12-5 (481 points scored, 365 allowed, a +116 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1652. Our model gives them a 55% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 55%. Put another way, our model and the market are in exact agreement on their division-win chances.
The 0pp gap makes sense, despite a notable head-coaching change (McDermott to Brady) and a real receiver upgrade (DJ Moore), Josh Allen's clean bill of health and the team's continuity at the core roster level mean model and market are seeing largely the same picture.
The Bills fired longtime head coach Sean McDermott on January 19, 2026, after nine seasons and a divisional-round playoff exit, promoting former offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach and bringing in Jim Leonhard as the new defensive coordinator. On offense, Buffalo traded for Bears WR DJ Moore (giving Josh Allen a true WR1) and re-signed center Connor McGovern, while re-signing/adding on defense via a Bradley Chubb (3-year deal) and CJ Gardner-Johnson signings; the team also cut ties with Curtis Samuel, Dane Jackson and Taylor Rapp. Josh Allen himself has no reported injury concerns and looked sharp early in camp, though CJ Gardner-Johnson was carted off with a leg injury during camp (appears to have avoided a major injury). QB1 is unquestionably Josh Allen, with no competition.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots made the Super Bowl last season, losing to the Seattle Seahawks. They finished the regular season at 14-3 (490 points scored, 320 allowed, a +170 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1598. Our model gives them a 35% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 37%. Put another way, the market is 2 points more confident in New England Patriots winning the division than our model is.
Market being slightly higher than the model (+2pp for market) tracks with a real offseason talent infusion, the A.J. Brown trade and O-line signings around an ascending Drake Maye, that a 2025-results-based model wouldn't yet price in, even with some offsetting camp injury concerns on defense.
The Patriots kept continuity at the top, Mike Vrabel (AP Coach of the Year after the 14-3 season and Super Bowl LX run) returns as head coach with Josh McDaniels again as OC, but made an aggressive push to arm Drake Maye, most notably trading for Eagles WR A.J. Brown (New England sent a 2028 first and 2027 fifth) and signing guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and DE Dre'Mont Jones. On defense, Zak Kuhr, who called plays during 2025 while DC Terrell Williams battled prostate cancer, was officially promoted to defensive coordinator, with Williams moving into a new assistant head coach role. In camp, starting edge rusher Harold Landry III is on the PUP list with a lingering knee injury/surgery from late 2025 (a real hole in the pass rush, not a fresh camp injury), and star CB Christian Gonzalez is still unsigned on a contract extension (though practicing fully, not a holdout in the traditional sense). Drake Maye is firmly entrenched as starter after an MVP-finalist 2025 season, with Tommy DeVito re-signed as backup.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 7-10 (347 points scored, 424 allowed, a -77 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1447. Our model gives them a 8% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 4%. Put another way, our model is 4 points more confident in Miami Dolphins winning the division than the market is.
Model higher than market fits cleanly, the model is still crediting Miami's 2025-season talent (Tua, Waddle, Hill) while the market has already priced in the QB change, the Waddle trade, and Tyreek Hill's release.
Miami underwent a full teardown after its 7-10 season: GM Jon-Eric Sullivan (hired January 9) and new head coach Jeff Hafley (hired January 19, replacing Mike McDaniel) brought in a new staff including OC Bobby Slowik and DC Sean Duggan. The Dolphins released Tua Tagovailoa (a post-June 1 cut with a record ~$99M dead-cap hit; he signed with Atlanta), traded WR Jaylen Waddle to Denver, and released star WR Tyreek Hill outright (Feb 17, 2026) after he failed his physical on the knee injury (dislocated knee, torn ligaments) that ended his 2025 season. In free agency Miami signed Malik Willis (3 years, $67.5M) as presumptive QB1, with 2025 draftee Quinn Ewers pushing him in an ongoing, not-fully-settled training camp competition. In short: new coach, new GM, no Tua, no Waddle, no Tyreek Hill, this is a roster stripped down well beyond what the 2025 game results show.
New York Jets
The New York Jets missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 3-14 (300 points scored, 503 allowed, a -203 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1313. Our model gives them a 2% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 4%. Put another way, the market is 2 points more confident in New York Jets winning the division than our model is.
Market higher than model fits the Geno Smith reacquisition and real defensive investment (Fitzpatrick, Davis, Ossai, Jermaine Johnson), a results-based model still anchored to the 3-14, Fields-led 2025 tape hasn't caught up to a roster that looks meaningfully more competent on paper.
The Jets' 2025 disaster season (3-14) featured a failed Justin Fields experiment, benched for Tyrod Taylor after a 2-7 start, then a knee injury ended his season in December, but the 2026 offseason brought real stabilization: New York traded a 2026 sixth-round pick to Las Vegas to reacquire veteran QB Geno Smith (the franchise that originally drafted him), who is now the clear QB1, with rookie Cade Klubnik (4th round, Clemson) competing for the backup job. On defense the Jets added significant pieces, DE Joseph Ossai (3 years, $34.5M), traded for Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (3 years, $40M), signed LB Demario Davis, and traded for edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II, while star CB Sauce Gardner was already dealt to Indianapolis for two first-round picks back at the November 2025 trade deadline, so that loss is already baked into the 2025 results. Aaron Glenn returns for year two as head coach with Frank Reich still calling plays as OC.
What This Means
Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.
A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.
This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.