Introduction
The AFC North has real spread in how confident the market is relative to our model. Cincinnati is the headline and the widest gap in the division: the market is running a full 13 points above our model, and the reason is simple. Joe Burrow missed 9 games in 2025 to a turf-toe injury, the Bengals still went 5-3 in games he started, and he's fully healthy again for 2026. Our rating is still anchored to the injury-depressed full-season record. Pittsburgh moves the other way (market 8 points below our model), largely on real transition risk. Mike Tomlin's 19-year run ended, Aaron Rodgers has already said 2026 is his last season, and T.J. Watt's contract situation is unresolved. Baltimore and Cleveland are both close to even, each with a real positive and a real negative roughly canceling out.
This preview covers three things for every team in the AFC North: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the AFC North, Cleveland Browns has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #1 of 32 league-wide), and Pittsburgh Steelers has the hardest (rank #11). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.
| Team | Schedule Difficulty Rank | Home / Away / Neutral | Avg Opponent Rating | Expected Wins at 1500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | #1 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1459 | 9.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | #3 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1473 | 9.0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | #4 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1474 | 9.0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | #11 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1493 | 8.6 |
2026 Season Win Probabilities
These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.
| Team | SharpModels Power Rank | 2026 Model Expected Wins | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | #9 of 32 | 10.4 | at Buffalo Bills, Week 8 (34%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 4 (84%) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | #17 of 32 | 9.0 | at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 11 (32%) | vs. Cleveland Browns, Week 8 (72%) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | #19 of 32 | 8.6 | at Houston Texans, Week 2 (27%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 8 (77%) |
| Cleveland Browns | #27 of 32 | 7.0 | at Baltimore Ravens, Week 16 (23%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 12 (67%) |
AFC North: Model vs. Market
| Team | 2025 Record | SharpModels Rating | Model Division Win % | Market Division Win % | Model vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 1575 | 46% | 44% | +2pp |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 1517 | 25% | 17% | +8pp |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | 1478 | 20% | 33% | -13pp |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | 1385 | 8% | 6% | +2pp |
Team by Team
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 8-9 (424 points scored, 398 allowed, a +26 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1575. Our model gives them a 46% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 44%. Put another way, our model is 2 points more confident in Baltimore Ravens winning the division than the market is.
The gap here is small (+2pp) and that fits the news, a genuinely positive move (Hendrickson signing, new coaching staff) is roughly offset by real durability concerns around Lamar Jackson, so model and market landing close together makes sense rather than pointing to one dominant story.
Baltimore fired HC John Harbaugh on January 6, 2026, and hired Chargers DC Jesse Minter as his replacement; Minter will call the defense himself with Anthony Weaver on staff as DC, and first-time play-caller Declan Doyle runs the offense. The Ravens made a notable defensive upgrade in free agency, signing DE Trey Hendrickson to a 4-year, $112M deal after a Maxx Crosby trade fell through when Crosby failed his physical, a real pass-rush boost, though Hendrickson himself missed most of 2025 with a core-muscle injury requiring surgery. On the other side of the ledger, Lamar Jackson is coming off an injury-marred 2025 (hamstring, back contusion, missed 4 games, first losing stretch of his career) and has had recurring "injury scare"/illness reports and uneven arm play through 2026 training camp. Lamar remains the unquestioned starting QB with no competition, but his durability is a live storyline. The Ravens also lost both backup safeties (Alohi Gilman to KC, Ar'Darius Washington to NYG) but replaced with Jaylinn Hawkins.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers reached the Wild Card round last season before losing to the Houston Texans. They finished the regular season at 10-7 (397 points scored, 387 allowed, a +10 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1517. Our model gives them a 25% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 17%. Put another way, our model is 8 points more confident in Pittsburgh Steelers winning the division than the market is.
Market likely well below our model because it's pricing in real transition risk our results-based model can't see, the departure of a stabilizing 19-year head coach for a first-year-with-the-team replacement, an unresolved T.J. Watt contract/trade situation, and a 42-year-old QB who has already announced this is his farewell season.
Mike Tomlin resigned after the Steelers' 2025 wild-card loss to Houston, ending a 19-year run in which he never had a losing season; Mike McCarthy was hired to replace him, reuniting with Aaron Rodgers, whom he coached for 13 years in Green Bay. Rodgers is back as the unquestioned starting QB but has stated publicly and repeatedly that 2026 will be his last season ("zero debate"), and the offense pairs him with newly added WR DK Metcalf alongside veteran Michael Pittman Jr. Defensively, star EDGE T.J. Watt sat out 2025 mandatory minicamp seeking a new contract and enters 2026 still without an extension, reports describe ongoing trade speculation (a ~$94M dead-cap charge makes an in-season trade unlikely, but the uncertainty lingers), while new DC Patrick Graham (ex-Raiders) takes over the defensive scheme and Nick Herbig got his own extension. The team also added a corner (3-year, $36.75M) to pair with Joey Porter Jr.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 6-11 (414 points scored, 492 allowed, a -78 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1478. Our model gives them a 20% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 33%. Put another way, the market is 13 points more confident in Cincinnati Bengals winning the division than our model is.
Market almost certainly well above our model because the model is still anchored to a 6-11 record produced largely by 9 missed games from an injured Joe Burrow, while the market already knows Burrow is healthy again for 2026.
Joe Burrow's 2025 season was wrecked by a Grade 3 turf toe injury suffered in Week 2 that required surgery and cost him 9 games (Weeks 3-12); Cincinnati went a respectable 5-3 in games he started but finished 6-11 overall, the injury, not a talent collapse, is the primary reason for the bad record. Burrow is fully healthy and the unquestioned starter entering 2026, reportedly "back in full force" and looking sharp through training camp. On defense, the Bengals lost their best pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, who went unfranchised and signed with division-rival Baltimore, but responded with a heavy defensive rebuild: traded the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for DT Dexter Lawrence and signed him to a 1-year, $28M extension, plus signed EDGE Mafe (fresh off a Super Bowl with Seattle), S Bryan Cook (3-year, $40.25M), and DT Jonathan Allen (2-year, up to $28M); DC Al Golden (hired from Notre Dame in 2025) returns for a second season with no other coaching-staff changes. A couple of depth pieces (rookie C Connor Lew, TE Erick All Jr.) are still working back from ACL injuries, and WR Tee Higgins' camp workload is being managed as a precaution, not because of a new injury.
Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 5-12 (279 points scored, 379 allowed, a -100 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1385. Our model gives them a 8% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 6%. Put another way, our model is 2 points more confident in Cleveland Browns winning the division than the market is.
The gap is tiny (+2pp, both model and market near the bottom of the league) and that tracks, the unresolved Watson/Sanders QB battle plus trading away Myles Garrett are exactly the kind of story that leaves both a results-based model and the market in agreement that Cleveland isn't a contender in 2026, so no single event explains a "gap" because there effectively isn't one.
Cleveland fired HC Kevin Stefanski on January 5, 2026 (45-56 over six years) and hired former Ravens OC Todd Monken (also Cleveland's OC back in 2019) as his first-time head coach. The QB competition between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders remains unresolved entering camp, Monken has not named a starter and plans to evaluate both in preseason play, with Watson described as having a slow start before building chemistry with new receivers. Star DE Myles Garrett requested a trade in February 2026, was talked into staying with a 4-year, $40M/year extension in March, but was ultimately traded to the LA Rams in June 2026 anyway (for DE Jared Verse and draft compensation), a major loss of the team's best defensive player. The Browns used a heavy 2026 draft haul (10 picks, 4 in the first two rounds) to remake the receiver room (Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion) and add O-line help (T Spencer Fano at No. 9).
What This Means
Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.
A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.
This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.