The first MLB entry in our model-versus-market series. Three of the four Wild Card Series are over, all of them sweeps: the Yankees, Padres and White Sox are through, and Braves against Phillies goes to a deciding Game 3 tonight. This piece lines up SharpModels' World Series and pennant chances for the nine teams still alive against the market, then goes series by series through where the two disagree and why.
SharpModels' MLB ratings are built only from wins and losses, with no injury or roster news, and our playoff chances come from playing the rest of the postseason out 5,000 times with those ratings (the method is set out in how the MLB season simulator works). The model numbers include every Wild Card game played so far. Market figures are prediction-market prices taken on Thursday morning, October 1, before Game 3, normalised to sum to 100 across the teams still alive. Diff is model minus market, so a negative number means the market is higher on that team than the model is.
World Series
| Team | Seed | Record | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dodgers | NL 2 | 100-62 | 19.7% | 29.0% | −9.2 |
 Yankees | AL 4 | 93-68 | 15.5% | 16.4% | −0.9 |
 Brewers | NL 1 | 103-59 | 20.8% | 15.8% | +5.0 |
 Padres | NL 4 | 91-71 | 11.0% | 10.5% | +0.5 |
 Rays | AL 1 | 98-64 | 12.9% | 8.5% | +4.4 |
 Guardians | AL 2 | 85-77 | 9.8% | 6.2% | +3.6 |
 White Sox | AL 6 | 84-78 | 2.4% | 4.7% | −2.4 |
 Phillies | NL 6 | 88-74 | 4.1% | 4.7% | −0.6 |
 Braves | NL 3 | 94-68 | 3.8% | 4.3% | −0.4 |
The average gap is 3.0 points, and the shape of the argument is clear. The market makes the Dodgers a clear favourite; the model rates Milwaukee and Los Angeles as near equals and has the Brewers narrowly on top. The model is also more positive than the market on the American League's two bye teams, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, and much less positive on the White Sox. Elsewhere the two sides are close: the Yankees, Padres, Braves and Phillies all agree to within a point. Across the whole bracket the model gives the American League 41% of World Series wins; the market gives it 36%.
Pennants
American League
| Team | Seed | Record | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 4 | 93-68 | 34.0% | 37.0% | −3.0 |
| Rays | 1 | 98-64 | 30.2% | 26.0% | +4.2 |
| Guardians | 2 | 85-77 | 25.8% | 22.0% | +3.8 |
| White Sox | 6 | 84-78 | 10.0% | 15.0% | −5.0 |
National League
| Team | Seed | Record | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 2 | 100-62 | 31.5% | 41.0% | −9.5 |
| Brewers | 1 | 103-59 | 32.8% | 27.0% | +5.8 |
| Padres | 4 | 91-71 | 19.4% | 14.0% | +5.4 |
| Braves | 3 | 94-68 | 8.1% | 9.0% | −0.9 |
| Phillies | 6 | 88-74 | 8.2% | 9.0% | −0.8 |
The pennant markets show the same pattern more sharply. In the National League the model has the Brewers (32.8%) narrowly ahead of the Dodgers (31.5%); the market has the Dodgers well clear at 41.0%. In the American League both sides make the Yankees favourites, but the market prices the White Sox at 15.0% against the model's 10.0%, the widest American League gap.
Series by series
American League
ALDS: Rays (1) vs Yankees (4)
| Team | Win DS (model) | Pennant model | Pennant market | WS model | WS market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 47.7% | 30.2% | 26.0% | 12.9% | 8.5% |
| Yankees | 52.3% | 34.0% | 37.0% | 15.5% | 16.4% |
The AL East rematch. Tampa Bay won 98 games and clinched the division and the top seed by beating New York on September 23. The Yankees then went through Boston without trouble, sweeping the Wild Card Series 9–0 and 9–2. Cam Schlittler threw six and a third scoreless innings with ten strikeouts in Game 1, where Ben Rice drove in six runs including a grand slam, and Max Fried allowed one run in six innings in Game 2. Those two wins lifted New York to 1562, now the highest rating in the American League, against Tampa Bay's 1547. The model gives home field to the Rays but still makes the Yankees a slight favourite to win the series (52%). The market agrees New York is the pennant favourite but goes further, 37.0% against the model's 34.0%. The bigger disagreement is over Tampa Bay: the model has the Rays at 12.9% to win the World Series, the market at only 8.5%. The Rays' rating has climbed 50 points this season but started low (1497), so the model still sees a team close to the Yankees, not one clearly behind them.
ALDS: Guardians (2) vs White Sox (6)
| Team | Win DS (model) | Pennant model | Pennant market | WS model | WS market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 63.7% | 25.8% | 22.0% | 9.8% | 6.2% |
| White Sox | 36.3% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 4.7% |
The biggest disagreement in the American League. Chicago completed one of the stories of the season by sweeping Houston on the road, 6–3 and then 7–3, chasing Astros starter Hunter Brown with a four-run first inning and putting the game away with Chase Meidroth's three-run home run in the sixth. It was the White Sox's first postseason series win since the 2005 World Series, two years after a modern-record 121 losses. The ratings never expected it: before the series the model had Houston as a 63% favourite. Even after the sweep, Chicago is rated 1467, about 50 points below every other team left, because baseball ratings move only a few points a game and the White Sox started the season at 1400. The model makes Cleveland a 64% favourite in the series and gives Chicago 10.0% to win the pennant; the market has them at 15.0%, and at 4.7% for the World Series, double the model's 2.4%. Cleveland, which came back from six games behind the White Sox in mid-August to win a third straight AL Central title, is the other side of that gap: alongside Tampa Bay, it is one of two American League teams the model rates above the market, at 25.8% for the pennant against 22.0%.
National League
NLDS: Brewers (1) vs Padres (4)
| Team | Win DS (model) | Pennant model | Pennant market | WS model | WS market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 58.4% | 32.8% | 27.0% | 20.8% | 15.8% |
| Padres | 41.6% | 19.4% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% |
San Diego looked like a contender in the Wild Card round, sweeping the Cubs 8–0 and 4–1 and allowing one run in two games. Michael King took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of Game 1, and in Game 2 pinch-hitter Gavin Sheets hit a two-run home run while five pitchers combined on a five-hitter. The Padres are rated 1555, fourth among the teams left. Milwaukee won a franchise-record 103 games, the best record in baseball, and is the top-rated team in the sport at 1588, with home field throughout. The model makes the Brewers 58% to win the series. On this side of the bracket the model is higher than the market on both teams: Milwaukee at 32.8% for the pennant against 27.0%, and San Diego at 19.4% against 14.0%. Those points come from the other half of the bracket, where the market is far higher on the Dodgers.
NLDS: Dodgers (2) vs Braves or Phillies
| Team | Win DS (model) | Pennant model | Pennant market | WS model | WS market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 60.5% | 31.5% | 41.0% | 19.7% | 29.0% |
Los Angeles remains the market's clear favourite and the model's biggest disagreement. The Dodgers are two-time defending champions trying to become the first team to win three straight World Series since the 1998–2000 Yankees, and they won 100 games. On the model's numbers they are almost exactly as good as Milwaukee, rated 1586 to the Brewers' 1588, with home field against them in a potential NLCS. So the model makes the two co-favourites, the Dodgers at 19.7% to win it all and 31.5% for the pennant. The market has them at 29.0% and 41.0%. That 9.2-point World Series gap is the widest on the board. The rating cannot price a championship pedigree, postseason pitching depth or star power, and the market clearly does. It is not pricing a clean bill of health either: Shohei Ohtani went on the injured list on September 11 with right biceps and left knee problems and came back late in the month as a hitter only. The model makes the Dodgers 60% to win the Division Series, against whichever of Atlanta and Philadelphia survives tonight.
Wild Card Game 3: Braves (3) vs Phillies (6)
| Team | Win WC (model) | Pennant model | Pennant market | WS model | WS market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 52.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% |
| Phillies | 47.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
The one series still alive. Atlanta won Game 1 5–3 on Austin Riley's two-out, three-run home run in the eighth inning off Jhoan Duran. Philadelphia levelled it in Game 2, coming from behind when Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hit back-to-back home runs in the eighth, then winning 4–3 on Alec Bohm's home run in the tenth. Cristopher Sánchez pitched into the seventh and rookie Andrew Painter finished it. Game 3 is tonight at 8:15 PM ET in Atlanta, with Aaron Nola starting for the Phillies and the Braves opening with Ray Kerr. On the ratings this is the most even series in the bracket: Philadelphia is actually rated slightly higher (1546 to 1538), and home field tips the model to Atlanta at 52%. Model and market agree closely on both teams, around 4% to win the World Series and 8–9% for the pennant, with the market a fraction higher on each. Whoever wins goes to Los Angeles.