Premier League Round 6. Round 5 went clearly to SharpModels: the model's favourite won in six of ten matches to the market's four, and it was closer on average. The two games where the two sides backed different favourites both went the model's way, Brentford beating Chelsea 3–0 and Aston Villa winning 3–2 at Tottenham. Nobody saw Brighton's 3–0 win over Arsenal coming.
Market prices below were refreshed on Saturday morning, October 10; SharpModels' numbers have not changed since Wednesday, and where a market price has moved the text says so. Model probabilities are SharpModels' own current win, draw and loss figures for each match. Market probabilities are prediction-market prices with the overround removed, since the raw prices run to 99 to 103 across three outcomes instead of 100. Diff is quoted as SharpModels minus the no-vig market, so a positive number means SharpModels rates that outcome higher than the market does.
Round 6 Slate
| Match | Model H | Model D | Model A | Market H | Market D | Market A | Diff H | Diff A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenalv Leeds | 69% | 19% | 13% | 67.3% | 20.8% | 11.9% | +1.7 | +1.1 |
 Chelseav Bournemouth | 46% | 27% | 27% | 53.5% | 23.8% | 22.8% | −7.5 | +4.2 |
 Sunderlandv Brighton | 32% | 28% | 40% | 30% | 28% | 42% | +2 | −2 |
 Aston Villav Brentford | 49% | 26% | 25% | 34.7% | 26.7% | 38.6% | +14.3 | −13.6 |
 Ipswichv Fulham | 39% | 28% | 33% | 34.3% | 27.5% | 38.2% | +4.7 | −5.2 |
 Manchester Utdv Tottenham | 59% | 23% | 18% | 55.9% | 22.5% | 21.6% | +3.1 | −3.6 |
 Hullv Everton | 24% | 26% | 50% | 26.5% | 28.4% | 45.1% | −2.5 | +4.9 |
 Crystal Palacev Nottingham | 41% | 28% | 31% | 34.3% | 28.4% | 37.3% | +6.7 | −6.3 |
 Liverpoolv Manchester City | 31% | 28% | 41% | 32.4% | 25.5% | 42.2% | −1.4 | −1.2 |
 Coventryv Newcastle | 31% | 28% | 41% | 29.4% | 26.5% | 44.1% | +1.6 | −3.1 |
Market columns above are already vig-free. Three games now flip the favourite outright, up from two on Wednesday. Aston Villa versus Brentford is still the widest gap of the round: SharpModels backs Villa at home on rating by 14.3 points more than the market, which follows Brentford's unbeaten start instead. Ipswich versus Fulham is the second, and Crystal Palace versus Nottingham has become the third, after the market moved towards Forest during the week. Chelsea versus Bournemouth is next widest, but the gap has narrowed from 10.9 to 7.5 points as the market has eased on Chelsea. The biggest move of the week came in the game of the round, where the market has swung five points towards Manchester City and now almost exactly matches SharpModels. Arsenal versus Leeds, Sunderland versus Brighton and Liverpool versus Manchester City are now within two and a half points on every outcome.
Match by match
Arsenal vs Leeds Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · 12:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal |
69% | 67.3% | +1.7 |
| Draw | 19% | 20.8% | −1.8 |
| Leeds |
13% | 11.9% | +1.1 |
Arsenal's perfect start ended at Brighton last time out, a 3–0 defeat, but they still carry the best rating in the league (2074) and sit second on 12 points. Leeds are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws) after a 0–0 at home to Crystal Palace, and have conceded only three goals, the joint-fewest in the division. Model and market agree closely: the market has eased four points on Arsenal since Wednesday and now sits just below SharpModels, the closest match of the round. Arsenal have dominated this fixture: seven wins and a draw from eight meetings, including the last five, most recently 4–0 at Leeds in January.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea |
46% | 53.5% | −7.5 |
| Draw | 27% | 23.8% | +3.2 |
| Bournemouth |
27% | 22.8% | +4.2 |
The second-widest gap of the round. Chelsea were the market's pick at Brentford last week and lost 3–0, their second defeat in three, and they have now conceded 12 goals in five games, the most in the league. Bournemouth are still looking for a first win (three draws, two defeats) after losing 1–0 at home to Liverpool. The ratings have these sides almost level, 1899 to 1890, so SharpModels' 46% for Chelsea is mostly home advantage. The market is still more confident, pricing the Chelsea squad above what five games of results suggest, but the gap has narrowed from 11 points on Wednesday to 7.5 as Chelsea's price has drifted. Chelsea lead the all-time record 9 wins to 4 from 18 meetings and Bournemouth have not won any of the last five, but the most recent ended 2–2 at Chelsea in December.
Sunderland vs Brighton Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland |
32% | 30% | +2 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 0 |
| Brighton |
40% | 42% | −2 |
Brighton are third after beating Arsenal 3–0, and their 16 goals are the most in the league. Sunderland have lost three of five, the latest a 5–3 defeat at Manchester City. Brighton's rating is 90 points higher (1956 to 1866), enough to make them favourites on the road, and model and market agree to within two points on every outcome. The two have met only twice, Brighton winning the most recent 1–0 at Sunderland in March.
Aston Villa vs Brentford Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa |
49% | 34.7% | +14.3 |
| Draw | 26% | 26.7% | −0.7 |
| Brentford |
25% | 38.6% | −13.6 |
The widest gap of the round, and one of two games where model and market disagree on the favourite. Villa are 16th with one win from five, but that win came last time out, 3–2 at Tottenham. Brentford are fourth and unbeaten, with 3–0 wins over Chelsea and Tottenham, and have conceded four goals all season. The market follows the table and makes Brentford slight favourites. SharpModels still rates Villa higher (1944 to 1914) on a longer run of results, and with home advantage makes them a 49% favourite. Last round the model backed Villa against the table at Tottenham and was right. Brentford lead the all-time record 6 wins to 4 from 16 meetings and won the last one 1–0 away at Villa in February.
Ipswich vs Fulham Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich |
39% | 34.3% | +4.7 |
| Draw | 28% | 27.5% | +0.5 |
| Fulham |
33% | 38.2% | −5.2 |
The other game where the two sides back different favourites, though by a smaller margin. Ipswich have two wins from five, including 3–2 at Crystal Palace, and lost 1–0 at Everton last time. Fulham are 19th and still winless, drawing 1–1 with Manchester Utd. Fulham are rated slightly higher (1868 to 1831), but not by enough to overcome home advantage, so SharpModels leans Ipswich at 39%. The market goes with Fulham at 38%. Fulham lead 4 wins to 3 from 10 meetings and are unbeaten in the last five; the most recent was a 2–2 draw at Fulham in January 2025.
Manchester Utd vs Tottenham Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · 5:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Utd |
59% | 55.9% | +3.1 |
| Draw | 23% | 22.5% | +0.5 |
| Tottenham |
18% | 21.6% | −3.6 |
Tottenham are bottom with two draws and three defeats, and have scored just twice in five games, the second-fewest in the league; they lost 3–2 at home to Aston Villa last time. United have one win from five but drew 1–1 at Fulham. A 105-point ratings gap (1941 to 1836) makes United clear favourites, and model and market agree to within four points. United lead the all-time record 15 wins to 10 from 33 meetings and won the most recent 2–0 in February, although Tottenham have the better of the last five, with two wins to one.
Hull vs Everton Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull |
24% | 26.5% | −2.5 |
| Draw | 26% | 28.4% | −2.4 |
| Everton |
50% | 45.1% | +4.9 |
Hull's unbeaten start ended at Newcastle, a 2–1 defeat, but the promoted side are still eighth on eight points. Their rating, 1734, is the lowest in the league. Everton are unbeaten in five and, with Leeds, have conceded the fewest goals (three). Both sides make Everton clear away favourites, with SharpModels a few points firmer. Everton have won four of the seven meetings; the last was a 4–0 Everton home win in 2017.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace |
41% | 34.3% | +6.7 |
| Draw | 28% | 28.4% | −0.4 |
| Nottingham |
31% | 37.3% | −6.3 |
Nottingham suffered one of last round's upsets, beaten 1–0 at home by Coventry, who had not scored all season. Palace have lost three of five and drew 0–0 at Leeds. Nottingham are rated slightly higher (1873 to 1849), so SharpModels' lean to Palace at 41% is home advantage. The market had this nearly even on Wednesday but has since moved towards Forest and now makes them slight favourites, 37% to 34%, so this has become a third game where the two sides back different favourites. The fixture has been tight for years: eight draws in 15 meetings, four of them in the last five, and the most recent ended 1–1 in February.
Liverpool vs Manchester City Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 4:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool |
31% | 32.4% | −1.4 |
| Draw | 28% | 25.5% | +2.5 |
| Manchester City |
41% | 42.2% | −1.2 |
The game of the round. City are the only side with five wins from five, scoring 13 goals, and have the league's second-best rating at 2063. Liverpool are unbeaten (two wins, three draws) and won 1–0 at Bournemouth last time, but are rated 100 points lower at 1963. That gap is big enough for SharpModels to make City 41% favourites even away at Liverpool, against 31% for the hosts. On Wednesday the market had the two level at 37% each. It has since moved five points towards City, to 42% against 32%, the biggest market move of the week, and now almost exactly matches the model. The all-time record could not be closer: 11 wins each and 11 draws from 33 meetings, two wins each in the last five, and City won the most recent 2–1 at Liverpool in February.
Coventry vs Newcastle Mon, Oct 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry |
31% | 29.4% | +1.6 |
| Draw | 28% | 26.5% | +1.5 |
| Newcastle |
41% | 44.1% | −3.1 |
Coventry finally got going last round, winning 1–0 at Nottingham for their first goal and first win of the season. Newcastle are ninth after beating Hull 2–1. With a 97-point ratings gap (1916 to 1819), both sides make Newcastle favourites on the road, the market a few points more firmly. The clubs have met once in the site's records, Newcastle winning 4–1 in 2010.