The 2026 NFL season starts this week, and this is the first entry in what will be a running watching brief through the year: a straight, game-by-game comparison of what SharpModels' own ratings say against what the market says, updated as the season moves.
The point of looking at the differences isn't to crown a winner between the two. It's that a gap between the model and the market is a signal worth chasing, not noise to shrug off. SharpModels' ratings are built purely from what happens on the field: who played whom, who won, and by how much. Nothing else goes in. They don't even carry over in full between seasons: each team's rating is pulled 75% of the way from a league-average baseline back to where it finished the year before, so a genuinely dominant or genuinely bad 2025 team starts 2026 a little closer to average than it really was. Either way, that number only moves once a team actually plays a 2026 game, and Week 1 hasn't kicked off yet, so right now every rating on this slate is nothing more than that 75% carryover of 2025. It has no idea a star got traded, a quarterback got benched, or a head coach got fired, and it won't until enough real 2026 results force it to. The market, on the other hand, usually knows within hours. Reading these gaps game by game, all season, is the cheapest way to catch exactly where the model is still behind, before that blind spot costs anything.
Model probabilities are taken from the SharpModels matchups page. Market probabilities are the two-sided prices normalised to sum to 100, since the raw book runs 100 to 101 on this slate. Both sides of every game are shown, away team first. Diff is quoted on the away team, as SharpModels minus market, so a negative number means the market is higher on the away side than the model is.
Week 1 Slate
| Game | Model away | Model home | Market away | Market home | Diff (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots@ Seahawks | 30% | 70% | 38.6% | 61.4% | −8.6 |
| 49ers@ Rams | 42% | 58% | 36% | 64% | +6 |
| Saints@ Lions | 23% | 77% | 25.7% | 74.3% | −2.7 |
| Bills@ Texans | 46% | 54% | 51.5% | 48.5% | −5.5 |
| Bears@ Panthers | 59% | 41% | 59.4% | 40.6% | −0.4 |
| Browns@ Jaguars | 24% | 76% | 21.8% | 78.2% | +2.2 |
| Falcons@ Steelers | 35% | 65% | 37% | 63% | −2 |
| Jets@ Titans | 45% | 55% | 47.5% | 52.5% | −2.5 |
| Ravens@ Colts | 57% | 43% | 61.4% | 38.6% | −4.4 |
| Buccaneers@ Bengals | 43% | 57% | 35.6% | 64.4% | +7.4 |
| Packers@ Vikings | 41% | 59% | 46.5% | 53.5% | −5.5 |
| Cardinals@ Chargers | 24% | 76% | 18.8% | 81.2% | +5.2 |
| Commanders@ Eagles | 25% | 75% | 32% | 68% | −7 |
| Dolphins@ Raiders | 60% | 40% | 37.4% | 62.6% | +22.6 |
| Cowboys@ Giants | 50% | 50% | 60.4% | 39.6% | −10.4 |
| Broncos@ Chiefs | 55% | 45% | 44% | 56% | +11 |
Mean absolute deviation is 6.5 points and the median is 5.5, with 10 of 16 games disagreeing by more than 5. The signed mean is +0.3, so there is no systematic home or away lean in the model relative to the market, just wide two-sided dispersion.
These figures are stable. An earlier snapshot taken at roughly a third of the current volume produced a mean absolute deviation of 6.5 and a median of 5.9, and fourteen of the sixteen games have since moved by less than a point. The disagreements are therefore with a settled price rather than with a thin book.
Match by match
Patriots @ Seahawks Wed, Sep 9, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 30% | 38.6% | −8.6 |
| Seahawks | 70% | 61.4% | +8.6 |
Model has it Patriots 30%, Seahawks 70%. The market has Patriots 38.6%, Seahawks 61.4%, a gap of 8.6 on New England. The Patriots reached the Super Bowl last season and lost it to Seattle, 29 to 13, then spent the offseason adding to the roster anyway, trading for A.J. Brown and signing Romeo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Dre'Mont Jones and Kevin Byard around Drake Maye. Seattle is the defending champion, but its own offseason wasn't pure continuity: the Seahawks lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to the Raiders' head coaching job, declined to re-sign Kenneth Walker III, and lost Tariq Woolen, so the ratings are crediting a roster that's genuinely thinner in a few real spots even after winning it all.
49ers vs Rams Thu, Sep 10, 2026 · 8:35 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 42% | 36% | +6 |
| Rams | 58% | 64% | −6 |
Model has it 49ers 42%, Rams 58%. The market has 49ers 36.0%, Rams 64.0%, a gap of 6.0 on San Francisco. Los Angeles pushed all its chips in, acquiring Myles Garrett along with Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, which is one of the largest single-offseason talent injections on this slate. San Francisco answered with Mike Evans and Osa Odighizuwa, which is real but a tier below, and neither move has been priced into either rating yet. One live subtraction for Los Angeles worth knowing before kickoff: Aaron Donald is out for Week 1.
Saints @ Lions Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 23% | 25.7% | −2.7 |
| Lions | 77% | 74.3% | +2.7 |
Model has it Saints 23%, Lions 77%. The market has Saints 25.7%, Lions 74.3%, a gap of 2.7 on New Orleans. The Saints added Travis Etienne, Tyree Wilson and Kaden Elliss around Tyler Shough, who started nine games as a rookie last season and enters as the established starter rather than a new one, while Detroit lost Alex Anzalone, Taylor Decker and D.J. Reader. The direction is mildly pro-New Orleans and the gap is inside normal noise, so this needs no adjustment.
Bills @ Texans Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 46% | 51.5% | −5.5 |
| Texans | 54% | 48.5% | +5.5 |
Model has it Bills 46%, Texans 54%. The market has Bills 51.5%, Texans 48.5%, a gap of 5.5 on Buffalo, and note the two sides disagree on who is favoured. Buffalo traded for DJ Moore and signed Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson under first-year head coach Joe Brady, giving Josh Allen a genuine number one target for the first time in years. Houston's additions of David Montgomery, Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller and Reed Blankenship are useful but not equivalent, and this gap has widened by two points since the earlier snapshot, which is worth watching.
Bears @ Panthers Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 59% | 59.4% | −0.4 |
| Panthers | 41% | 40.6% | +0.4 |
Model has it Bears 59%, Panthers 41%. The market has Bears 59.4%, Panthers 40.6%, a gap of 0.4. Chicago's offseason wasn't as quiet as this near-perfect agreement suggests: DJ Moore left for Buffalo (see the Bills section above), even as the team also added Garrett Bradbury, Devin Bush and Coby Bryant. Carolina signed Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd. The two sides still land within half a point of each other, so whatever each is weighing here, they're weighing it the same way.
Browns @ Jaguars Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 24% | 21.8% | +2.2 |
| Jaguars | 76% | 78.2% | −2.2 |
Model has it Browns 24%, Jaguars 76%. The market has Browns 21.8%, Jaguars 78.2%, a gap of 2.2 on Cleveland. The Browns lost Myles Garrett and received Jared Verse, which nets out closer than the headline suggests, and also added Zion Johnson. Jacksonville's changes are smaller in both directions, so the near-agreement here is reasonable.
Falcons @ Steelers Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Steelers | 65% | 63% | +2 |
Model has it Falcons 35%, Steelers 65%. The market has Falcons 37.0%, Steelers 63.0%, a gap of 2.0 on Atlanta. Atlanta's own headline is a quarterback change: the Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa and named him the Week 1 starter over incumbent Michael Penix Jr. Pittsburgh's offseason is smaller than it first looks. Mike Tomlin stepped down and Mike McCarthy took over as head coach, but the marquee retention is Aaron Rodgers, who reunited with McCarthy, his head coach for 13 seasons in Green Bay, for what's been described as his farewell season, and starts Week 1. Pittsburgh also added Michael Pittman, Rico Dowdle, Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker. The roster around Rodgers has actually turned over by more than 30% even so, but continuity at the one position that matters most, layered under a genuine coaching change rather than a teardown, is enough on its own to explain a small gap here.
Jets @ Titans Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 45% | 47.5% | −2.5 |
| Titans | 55% | 52.5% | +2.5 |
Model has it Jets 45%, Titans 55%. The market has Jets 47.5%, Titans 52.5%, a gap of 2.5 on New York. Both teams overhauled their defences almost completely, the Jets through Minkah Fitzpatrick, T'Vondre Sweat and a wave of free agent signings, and Tennessee through Robert Saleh reuniting with Jermaine Johnson, Solomon Thomas and John Franklin-Myers. Offence changed too: Geno Smith is New York's starting quarterback, and Tennessee added receiver Wan'Dale Robinson. Between the two, this is as much roster turnover as any game on the slate, on both sides of the ball, and yet the model and the market still land within 2.5 points of each other, too close for either rebuild to look obviously ahead of the other yet.
Ravens @ Colts Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 57% | 61.4% | −4.4 |
| Colts | 43% | 38.6% | +4.4 |
Model has it Ravens 57%, Colts 43%. The market has Ravens 61.4%, Colts 38.6%, a gap of 4.4 on Baltimore. The Ravens signed Trey Hendrickson after the Maxx Crosby trade collapsed, while Indianapolis lost Michael Pittman and Zaire Franklin. That undersells the Colts' own offseason, though: alongside Arden Key, Indianapolis restocked its defence with Micheal Clemons, Derrick Nnadi, Jerry Tillery, Colby Wooden and Cam Taylor-Britt, added Keenan Allen in August, re-signed free agents Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce, and extended Jonathan Taylor on a new three-year deal. Both directions still favour Baltimore, but by less than a single-signing summary would suggest, and this gap has narrowed by 2.2 points toward Indianapolis since the earlier snapshot, the largest move on the slate.
Buccaneers @ Bengals Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 43% | 35.6% | +7.4 |
| Bengals | 57% | 64.4% | −7.4 |
Model has it Buccaneers 43%, Bengals 57%. The market has Buccaneers 35.6%, Bengals 64.4%, a gap of 7.4 on Tampa Bay. Cincinnati allowed more rushing yards than any team last season and rebuilt the interior accordingly, trading for Dexter Lawrence and signing Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook, with the loss of Trey Hendrickson partially offsetting. Tampa Bay added Kenneth Gainwell and Alex Anzalone, so the ratings are holding a Bengals defensive weakness that has been directly addressed.
Packers @ Vikings Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 41% | 46.5% | −5.5 |
| Vikings | 59% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
Model has it Packers 41%, Vikings 59%. The market has Packers 46.5%, Vikings 53.5%, a gap of 5.5 on Green Bay. This one is explainable but uncomfortable, because Green Bay opens without Micah Parsons on reserve PUP and without Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, and lost Rashan Gary, Elgton Jenkins, Rasheed Walker, Quay Walker and Romeo Doubs, though the Packers didn't stand still either, adding Javon Hargrave straight from Minnesota along with Skyy Moore, Tyrod Taylor, Jonnu Smith and Zaire Franklin. If the market prices all of that and still sits above the model, Minnesota isn't pure subtraction either. Alongside losing Hargrave to Green Bay, Jonathan Allen, Jonathan Greenard and Ryan Kelly, the Vikings signed Jauan Jennings and used a first-round pick on defensive lineman Caleb Banks. There's also a quarterback change from J.J. McCarthy to Kyler Murray, though how that nets out on the field is a real football question rather than a settled one. Harrison Smith, released in March, re-signed for a 15th season on 5 September, so that particular subtraction has already reversed itself.
Cardinals @ Chargers Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 24% | 18.8% | +5.2 |
| Chargers | 76% | 81.2% | −5.2 |
Model has it Cardinals 24%, Chargers 76%. The market has Cardinals 18.8%, Chargers 81.2%, a gap of 5.2 on Arizona. The Cardinals released Kyler Murray and start Jacoby Brissett, having also added Tyler Allgeier and Isaac Seumalo, so the market is applying a quarterback downgrade the ratings do not know about. Los Angeles added David Njoku and hired Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, which is a real change but not the kind that usually moves a number this size on its own, so this still reads as a fairly clean single-cause gap.
Commanders @ Eagles Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 25% | 32% | −7 |
| Eagles | 75% | 68% | +7 |
Model has it Commanders 25%, Eagles 75%. The market has Commanders 32.0%, Eagles 68.0%, a gap of 7.0 on Washington. The Commanders were active across the board with Odafe Oweh, Leo Chenal, Chig Okonkwo, Rasul Douglas, Nick Cross and Stefon Diggs, and get Jayden Daniels back healthy after a down 2025, though the offensive line is a serious concern with Laremy Tunsil out for most of the season. Philadelphia lost A.J. Brown and added Jonathan Greenard and Tariq Woolen, so the ratings are penalising Washington for a season its quarterback largely missed.
Dolphins @ Raiders Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 60% | 37.4% | +22.6 |
| Raiders | 40% | 62.6% | −22.6 |
Model has it Dolphins 60%, Raiders 40%. The market has Dolphins 37.4%, Raiders 62.6%, a gap of 22.6 on Miami, and the two sides disagree on who is favoured. This is the largest gap on the slate by a factor of two and the clearest single illustration of the ratings problem. Miami fired Mike McDaniel and Chris Grier, replaced them with Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan, and moved on from Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle, leaving Malik Willis starting behind what is widely rated the weakest receiving group in the league. Tyreek Hill is also gone, although he missed almost all of 2025 through injury, so his departure is less of a fresh blind spot for the ratings than it initially appears. Las Vegas moved the opposite way under Klint Kubiak, signing Kirk Cousins as a bridge to first overall pick Fernando Mendoza, making Tyler Linderbaum the highest-paid center in league history, and adding Kwity Paye, Quay Walker, Nakobe Dean and Taron Johnson, while retaining Maxx Crosby after the Ravens trade was nullified and getting Kolton Miller back after a 2025 limited to four games.
Cowboys @ Giants Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 50% | 60.4% | −10.4 |
| Giants | 50% | 39.6% | +10.4 |
Model has it Cowboys 50%, Giants 50%. The market has Cowboys 60.4%, Giants 39.6%, a gap of 10.4 on Dallas. The Cowboys added Rashan Gary, Von Miller and Jalen Thompson, while the Giants sold Dexter Lawrence and hired John Harbaugh as head coach, a real ledger in Dallas's favour on the roster side but one that comes with a genuine New York upgrade at the top too, so it's worth a few points rather than ten either way. Treat this one as a possible data problem rather than an offseason gap: the page prints a 50/50 win probability alongside a projected margin of Giants +1.7, and those two numbers cannot both come from a consistent model, so the win-probability figure and the margin figure look like they are not being generated from the same rating.
Broncos @ Chiefs Mon, Sep 14, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 55% | 44% | +11 |
| Chiefs | 45% | 56% | −11 |
Model has it Broncos 55%, Chiefs 45%. The market has Broncos 44.0%, Chiefs 56.0%, a gap of 11.0 on Denver, and the two sides disagree on who is favoured. The roster ledger actually runs against the market here, since Denver acquired Jaylen Waddle for a first, a third and a fourth-round swap while Kansas City's own offseason cuts both ways: out went Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to the Rams, plus Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, Leo Chenal and Bryan Cook, and in came Kenneth Walker III, Alohi Gilman, Justin Fields, Khyiris Tonga and L'Jarius Sneed. Net direction still favours Denver, just by less than the raw departures alone suggest. The only thing that explains an 11-point market lean toward Kansas City is Patrick Mahomes returning from the torn ACL that wrecked their 2025 sample, which makes this the same failure as Miami in reverse, with ratings built on games a star did not play.