Introduction
The AFC West has the single largest model-market gap of any division in the AFC: Denver at +27 points. A 14-3 season and a model that already loves the roster runs headlong into a market pricing in real uncertainty: Bo Nix's fractured ankle and surgery, a first-time offensive play-caller in Davis Webb, and a rough run of training-camp injuries. On the other side, Kansas City and Los Angeles both sit 11 points below the model. For the Chiefs it's almost entirely explained by one fact: Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December and missed the stretch run that produced their 6-11 finish, and he's fully cleared and on track for Week 1. For the Chargers, it's a healthy Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt rebuilding the offensive line plus a marquee Mike McDaniel hire at offensive coordinator.
This preview covers three things for every team in the AFC West: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the AFC West, Denver Broncos has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #17 of 32 league-wide), and Los Angeles Chargers has the hardest (rank #30). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.
| Team | Schedule Difficulty Rank | Home / Away / Neutral | Avg Opponent Rating | Expected Wins at 1500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | #17 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1498 | 8.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | #19 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1506 | 8.3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | #26 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1514 | 8.1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | #30 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1523 | 8.0 |
2026 Season Win Probabilities
These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.
| Team | SharpModels Power Rank | 2026 Model Expected Wins | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | #4 of 32 | 10.9 | at New England Patriots, Week 17 (47%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 11 (87%) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | #14 of 32 | 8.6 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 4 (24%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 2 (81%) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | #15 of 32 | 8.8 | at Seattle Seahawks, Week 7 (23%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 18 (80%) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | #31 of 32 | 4.7 | at Denver Broncos, Week 11 (13%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 16 (59%) |
AFC West: Model vs. Market
| Team | 2025 Record | SharpModels Rating | Model Division Win % | Market Division Win % | Model vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 14-3 | 1633 | 57% | 30% | +27pp |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 | 1533 | 20% | 31% | -11pp |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 1525 | 21% | 32% | -11pp |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 | 1301 | 1% | 7% | -6pp |
Team by Team
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos reached the Conference Championship last season before losing to the New England Patriots. They finished the regular season at 14-3 (401 points scored, 311 allowed, a +90 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1633. Our model gives them a 57% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 30%. Put another way, our model is 27 points more confident in Denver Broncos winning the division than the market is.
The market is likely pricing in real uncertainty our results-based model can't see, Bo Nix's ankle fracture/surgery, a new/unproven offensive play-caller in Davis Webb, and a wave of training-camp injuries, none of which show up in the 14-3 2025 record the model is trained on.
QB1 Bo Nix fractured his right ankle in the AFC Divisional Round loss to Buffalo (Jan 17, 2026) and had surgery with an initial ~12-week recovery estimate; he was tracking to return for spring OTAs and, as of August training camp, is taking full practice reps and says he expects to be fully healthy by September, "ahead of schedule." Denver made an aggressive win-now trade, sending a 1st, 3rd, and 4th-round pick to Miami for WR Jaylen Waddle, and HC Sean Payton ceded play-calling duties to first-time play-caller/OC Davis Webb (a former QB coach), a real scheme-continuity change. Training camp has been bumpy: DT Matt Henningsen suffered a season-ending Achilles tear (his second, opposite leg), WR Marvin Mims and Waddle both had camp injuries, and Nik Bonitto had an injury scare, while the defense also lost DL John Franklin-Myers to Tennessee in free agency (Zach Allen was re-signed). Second-year players Jahdae Barron (CB) and Pat Bryant (WR) are expected to take on bigger roles.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers reached the Wild Card round last season before losing to the New England Patriots. They finished the regular season at 11-6 (368 points scored, 340 allowed, a +28 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1533. Our model gives them a 20% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 31%. Put another way, the market is 11 points more confident in Los Angeles Chargers winning the division than our model is.
Market likely higher than our model because it's pricing in the Mike McDaniel OC hire and the healthy return of Slater and Alt to the offensive line, upgrades a results-based model trained on an injury-hit, McDaniel-less 2025 season hasn't caught up to.
The Chargers hired former Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator in January 2026 to pair with HC Jim Harbaugh, a notable offensive-scheme upgrade. Starting LT Rashawn Slater (ruptured patellar tendon, missed all of 2025) and RT Joe Alt are both expected back healthy for 2026, rebuilding an offensive line that was patched together last season. QB Justin Herbert is being deliberately managed this offseason with a reduced throwing workload and a footwork adjustment aimed at a quicker release, rather than recovering from any new injury. In free agency the team re-signed several core defenders including Khalil Mack (1-year, $18M fully guaranteed) and Teair Tart, and 2025 first-round RB Omarion Hampton, limited by an ankle injury as a rookie, is in line for an expanded role in 2026.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 6-11 (362 points scored, 328 allowed, a +34 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1525. Our model gives them a 21% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 32%. Put another way, the market is 11 points more confident in Kansas City Chiefs winning the division than our model is.
Market likely higher than our model because the 6-11 record was largely a product of losing Mahomes to a season-ending knee injury down the stretch, with Mahomes on track for Week 1 and Bieniemy back as OC, the market is pricing in a return to form that our results-based model, anchored to the injury-depressed 2025 record, hasn't reflected.
QB1 Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in his left knee on December 14, 2025, ending his 2025 season and directly contributing to the team's 6-11 finish and playoff miss; he's been fully cleared for training camp, is practicing in a brace and taking team reps without setbacks, and is on track for the September 14 opener at Denver. Kansas City brought back Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator (replacing Matt Nagy), reuniting him with the staff after his 2018-22 stint as OC during the team's Super Bowl run, and also added new WR and RB position coaches. Top WR Rashee Rice enters 2026 coming off a 30-day jail stint for a probation violation plus rehab from knee surgery, but has been cleared and is now practicing in full 11-on-11 work, with Xavier Worthy stepping up in the interim; the team otherwise made no free-agent additions at receiver.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 3-14 (241 points scored, 432 allowed, a -191 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1301. Our model gives them a 1% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 7%. Put another way, the market is 6 points more confident in Las Vegas Raiders winning the division than our model is.
Market likely higher than our model because it's pricing in a full organizational reset, a new coaching staff pulled from a Super Bowl winner and a QB position finally stabilized with veteran Kirk Cousins plus a high-ceiling No. 1 pick in Mendoza, none of which is reflected in the chaotic, Geno Smith-led 3-14 season the model was trained on.
The Raiders fired HC Pete Carroll on January 5, 2026 after a 3-14 season and hired Klint Kubiak, former Seahawks OC and part of Seattle's Super Bowl LX-winning staff, as head coach on a five-year deal. QB Geno Smith, who led the NFL with 17 interceptions and took a league-worst 55 sacks in 2025, was traded to the Jets for a late-round pick swap. Las Vegas then selected Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, the reigning Heisman winner off an undefeated national-championship season, with the No. 1 overall pick, signing him to a four-year, fully guaranteed $57.27M rookie deal, and separately signed veteran Kirk Cousins in free agency (most of his $20M salary paid by Atlanta) as a bridge starter; reports indicate Kubiak, who prefers not to rush rookie QBs, may start Cousins early in the season while Mendoza develops.
What This Means
Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.
A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.
This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.