Introduction
Houston carries the widest model-market gap in the AFC South at +16 points. Our model already rated their 12-5 season and mostly stable, retention-focused offseason highly, and we found no major offseason negative to explain why the market hasn't followed. Jacksonville, by contrast, is essentially in agreement with the market (-1 point) on the back of full coaching continuity under Liam Coen, even with Travis Hunter's knee recovery still a question mark. Indianapolis and Tennessee both see the market well ahead of the model: Daniel Jones's confirmed-healthy return from a torn Achilles for the Colts, and a full coaching and quarterback-support overhaul under Robert Saleh for the Titans, real 2026 stories a results-based rating can't yet credit.
This preview covers three things for every team in the AFC South: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the AFC South, Houston Texans has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #7 of 32 league-wide), and Jacksonville Jaguars has the hardest (rank #16). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.
| Team | Schedule Difficulty Rank | Home / Away / Neutral | Avg Opponent Rating | Expected Wins at 1500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | #7 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1482 | 8.8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | #10 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1491 | 8.7 |
| Tennessee Titans | #13 of 32 | 8 / 9 / 0 | 1490 | 8.6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | #16 of 32 | 6 / 9 / 2 | 1490 | 8.5 |
2026 Season Win Probabilities
These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.
| Team | SharpModels Power Rank | 2026 Model Expected Wins | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | #5 of 32 | 11.1 | at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 16 (44%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 18 (87%) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | #12 of 32 | 9.7 | at Denver Broncos, Week 2 (35%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 12 (83%) |
| Indianapolis Colts | #20 of 32 | 7.8 | at Houston Texans, Week 11 (24%) | vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 6 (75%) |
| Tennessee Titans | #32 of 32 | 4.9 | at Houston Texans, Week 18 (13%) | vs. New York Jets, Week 1 (55%) |
AFC South: Model vs. Market
| Team | 2025 Record | SharpModels Rating | Model Division Win % | Market Division Win % | Model vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 12-5 | 1625 | 57% | 41% | +16pp |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-4 | 1565 | 30% | 31% | -1pp |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 1451 | 11% | 18% | -7pp |
| Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 1292 | 1% | 10% | -9pp |
Team by Team
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans reached the Divisional round last season before losing to the New England Patriots. They finished the regular season at 12-5 (404 points scored, 295 allowed, a +109 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1625. Our model gives them a 57% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 41%. Put another way, our model is 16 points more confident in Houston Texans winning the division than the market is.
No major negative offseason news was found beyond Tank Dell's still-incomplete recovery, so the market-vs-model gap more likely reflects the market pricing a tighter AFC South race (Jacksonville finished 13-4 in 2025) than a specific Texans setback.
HC DeMeco Ryans, OC Nick Caley, and DC Matt Burke were all retained for 2026, no coaching changes since the 2025 season ended. Free agency was retention-focused: extensions/re-signings for DE Danielle Hunter, T Trent Brown, G Ed Ingram (3yr/$37.5M), TE Dalton Schultz, LB E.J. Speed, S M.J. Stewart, and DL Sheldon Rankins, plus depth adds like DE Logan Hall and S Reed Blankenship. C.J. Stroud is the unquestioned QB1 with no health concerns (DeMeco Ryans said he has "no concerns"), though his contract extension remains unresolved. WR Tank Dell is still not full-go for camp nearly two years removed from a catastrophic torn ACL/MCL/LCL, and Nico Collins was held out of some offseason work, which the team says was planned rest rather than injury.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars reached the Wild Card round last season before losing to the Buffalo Bills. They finished the regular season at 13-4 (474 points scored, 336 allowed, a +138 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1565. Our model gives them a 30% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 31%. Put another way, the market is 1 point more confident in Jacksonville Jaguars winning the division than our model is.
The near-zero gap (-1pp) tracks with what was found, a stable coaching staff and mostly steady roster, with the one real swing factor (Travis Hunter's knee recovery) seemingly already priced into both the model's 2025 results and the market.
HC Liam Coen enters year 2 with full staff continuity, OC Grant Udinski, DC Anthony Campanile, and ST Heath Farwell all retained. Free agency was quiet (one of only three teams to add no outside player during the legal tampering window), with later moves including RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. and RB DeeJay Dallas, plus a trade sending DL Maason Smith to Atlanta; the draft class (10 picks) isn't expected to produce Week 1 starters. The headline story is WR/CB Travis Hunter, the 2025 Heisman winner and two-way rookie, who tore a knee ligament in a non-contact practice drill and missed the final 10 games of 2025 including season-ending surgery; he's practicing in camp but Coen says he's unsure when Hunter will be "full go" for a two-way workload again. Trevor Lawrence remains the entrenched, uncontested QB1.
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 8-9 (466 points scored, 412 allowed, a +54 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1451. Our model gives them a 11% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 18%. Put another way, the market is 7 points more confident in Indianapolis Colts winning the division than our model is.
Market likely sits above our model mainly because Daniel Jones, the QB behind Indy's 2025 turnaround, is confirmed fully recovered from his Achilles and locked in as starter, an assurance the results-based model can't yet reflect, even though the team also traded away its leading tackler and WR1.
HC Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard were both retained, no coaching changes. QB Daniel Jones was re-signed as the unquestioned 2026 starter despite tearing his Achilles on December 7, 2025; he was fully cleared for training camp on the expected 6-8 month timeline and teammates say he "looks like he never got hurt," with Anthony Richardson (who has an outstanding trade request) and rookie Riley Leonard competing for QB2. The Colts also made two notable subtractive trades: leading tackler/2024 All-Pro LB Zaire Franklin was dealt to Green Bay (for DT Colby Wooden) to shed cap space, and WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. was traded to Pittsburgh. Additional free-agency losses include DE Kwity Paye, LB Samson Ebukam, S Nick Cross, and T Braden Smith, while the team added defensive pieces (Arden Key, Micheal Clemons, Cam Taylor-Britt, others) as Ballard prioritized getting the defense younger and faster.
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 3-14 (284 points scored, 478 allowed, a -194 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1292. Our model gives them a 1% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 10%. Put another way, the market is 9 points more confident in Tennessee Titans winning the division than our model is.
Market likely sits well above our model because of the wholesale coaching/scheme change (Saleh/Daboll/Bradley) and cap-space-driven weapon additions around a promising 2nd-year QB, upside a results-based model trained on a 3-14 season under the old fired staff has no way to capture yet.
Tennessee underwent a full coaching overhaul: HC Brian Callahan was fired during 2025, and the team hired former 49ers DC (and former Jets HC) Robert Saleh in January 2026, who brought in former Giants HC Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator specifically to develop 2025 #1 overall pick Cam Ward, plus Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator. Cam Ward is the entrenched QB1 for year two, with the new staff explicitly choosing not to alter his throwing mechanics. With roughly $97M in cap space (most in the league as of late February 2026), the Titans added WR Wan'Dale Robinson, edge Jermaine Johnson, and DL John Franklin-Myers in free agency, and used the No. 4 overall pick on WR Carnell Tate to pair with Calvin Ridley and Robinson. No significant reported injury to a starter or key player was found for Tennessee in this research.
What This Means
Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.
A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.
This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.