2026 NFC North Preview

Introduction

The NFC North's biggest swing belongs to Minnesota (+10 points), tied with Chicago for the largest gap in the division, and it's a genuinely unresolved story: as of the start of training camp, the Vikings' starting quarterback job between J.J. McCarthy and free-agent addition Kyler Murray is still an open competition, real uncertainty the market is pricing that a results-based rating simply can't see. Chicago moves the other way by the same 10 points, a market clearly buying into year two of Ben Johnson's system and Caleb Williams's development curve, even as real training-camp injuries (starting left tackle Ozzy Trapilo, edge rusher Montez Sweat) sit as an underweighted risk on the other side of that optimism. Detroit and Green Bay are both close to their market prices, each also carrying real, specific injury and personnel stories worth knowing before the season starts.

This preview covers three things for every team in the NFC North: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.

Strength of Schedule

Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the NFC North, Detroit Lions has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #6 of 32 league-wide), and Chicago Bears has the hardest (rank #31). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.

2026 Season Win Probabilities

These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.

NFC North: Model vs. Market

Team by Team

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 9-8 (481 points scored, 413 allowed, a +68 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1590. Our model gives them a 38% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 33%. Put another way, our model is 5 points more confident in Detroit Lions winning the division than the market is.

Model slightly higher than market likely reflects the market pricing in real camp risk around two starting defensive backs (Branch, Joseph) on PUP and an unproven, reshuffled offensive line, which a results-based model trained on last year's healthier roster doesn't yet discount.

Detroit overhauled its offensive line this offseason, releasing longtime LT Taylor Decker and signing C Cade Mays (ex-Panthers) plus T Larry Borom to replace Decker and the retired Frank Ragnow. GM Brad Holmes also lost LB Alex Anzalone (Bucs) and CB Amik Robertson (Commanders) in free agency but retained CB Rock Ya-Sin and added CB Roger McCreary, TE Tyler Conklin, DB Christian Izien, RB Isiah Pacheco, and backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. On the coaching side, OC John Morton was let go and replaced by Drew Petzing, while DC Kelvin Sheppard returns for year two, so most defensive continuity is intact. Training camp has brought notable defensive-back injury concern: starting safeties Brian Branch (Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee), plus Conklin (calf), opened camp on the PUP list, with Branch not expected back until late camp or early September. Jared Goff remains the unquestioned starting QB with no competition.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 9-8 (344 points scored, 333 allowed, a +11 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1566. Our model gives them a 27% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 17%. Put another way, our model is 10 points more confident in Minnesota Vikings winning the division than the market is.

Model far higher than market is well explained by the genuinely unresolved and still-competitive McCarthy/Murray quarterback battle in camp, real, current uncertainty the market is pricing that a results-based Elo model (which just sees last year's 9-8 record) cannot capture.

Minnesota's 2025 starter J.J. McCarthy had an injury-marred season (high ankle sprain in Week 2, a concussion, and a fractured throwing hand in Week 16), and this offseason the Vikings signed veteran Kyler Murray to push him rather than hand him the job outright. As of the first week of August 2026 training camp, the starting QB job is genuinely unresolved, Murray has been getting the bulk of first-team reps, with head coach Kevin O'Connell splitting reps between the two. On defense, DC Brian Flores stayed and OC Wes Phillips remains, so coordinator continuity is intact, though several position coaches turned over (Daronte Jones left for Washington's DC job). Roster-wise, Minnesota cut DL Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave for cap space, lost C Ryan Kelly to retirement, and lost RB Ty Chandler to New Orleans, while re-signing Aaron Jones and adding depth pieces like CB James Pierre.

Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers reached the Wild Card round last season before losing to the Chicago Bears. They finished the regular season at 9-7-1 (391 points scored, 360 allowed, a +31 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1551. Our model gives them a 21% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 26%. Put another way, the market is 5 points more confident in Green Bay Packers winning the division than our model is.

Market higher than model likely reflects optimism about Green Bay's defensive additions (Hargrave, Franklin, new DC Jonathan Gannon's scheme) and confidence that Love's thumb is a short-term issue and the defense can hold up even with Parsons out into October, upside a results-based model built on last year's 9-7-1 record doesn't yet see.

Green Bay's defense underwent a notable rebuild: it hired Jonathan Gannon as new DC (Jeff Hafley left to become Dolphins HC) with a planned shift to a 3-4 base, signed DT Javon Hargrave, traded for LB Zaire Franklin, and added CB Benjamin St-Juste and WR/returner Skyy Moore, while losing Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare. The big injury story is Micah Parsons (acquired from Dallas in August 2025), who tore his ACL on December 14, 2025; he also had a meniscus procedure alongside the ACL repair and is targeting a mid-October return under the standard nine-month recovery protocol, likely opening the season on PUP and missing at least the first several games. Starting QB Jordan Love, entering his fourth year as starter, injured a ligament in his left thumb in the preseason opener against the Jets and underwent a procedure, but the team expects him back "in plenty of time" for Week 1 with no long-term concern. OC Adam Stenavich remains in place, so offensive coordination is stable.

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears reached the Divisional round last season before losing to the Los Angeles Rams. They finished the regular season at 11-6 (441 points scored, 415 allowed, a +26 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1521. Our model gives them a 14% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 24%. Put another way, the market is 10 points more confident in Chicago Bears winning the division than our model is.

Market far higher than model likely reflects optimism about roster and coaching continuity (year two of Ben Johnson's system, a returning division-winning core, plus the Bryant/Bush/Bradbury additions) and belief in Caleb Williams's development curve, upside a backward-looking Elo model apparently doesn't fully credit despite the 11-6 record, even though real camp injuries (Trapilo, Sweat) are a genuine, currently underappreciated risk on the other side.

Chicago enters year two under HC Ben Johnson coming off a division-winning, 11-6 2025 season and a Divisional Round playoff appearance, with QB Caleb Williams (entering his third year) firmly entrenched as starter and no QB competition reported, camp reviews of Williams have been mixed day to day but trending positive by early August. The Bears added on both lines and at the second level: they traded for center Garrett Bradbury (Patriots) and signed OL Jedrick Wills Jr. after Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman retired, and bolstered the front seven/secondary with S Coby Bryant (3-yr, $40M), LB Devin Bush (3-yr, $30M), and DT Neville Gallimore. Camp has brought real injury concern, however: starting LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered a knee injury that could cost him most or all of the season and opened camp on PUP, and edge rusher Montez Sweat has been on injury/NFI watch, with several secondary players (Kyler Gordon, Noah Sewell, Shemar Turner) also on PUP. No head coach, OC, or DC changes were made this offseason.

What This Means

Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.

A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.

This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.