This is the fifth entry in a season-long watching brief comparing SharpModels' own ratings against the market, game by game. Week 4 went narrowly to the market: it picked 9 winners to the model's 8 (the model had two games at exactly 50–50) and was slightly closer on average. The last entry's quarterback-injury theme split two each. The model was right that the Giants could beat Arizona with Jameis Winston and that the Bears would handle the Jets without Caleb Williams; the market was right about Indianapolis beating Washington in London and Green Bay winning in Tampa Bay against a rookie quarterback. Kansas City (4–0) and Carolina have the week off.
A gap between model and market is worth chasing, not noise to shrug off. SharpModels' ratings are built purely from what happens on the field, so unlike the market they carry no offseason or injury news, only real results. Model probabilities are taken from the SharpModels matchups page; market probabilities are two-sided prices normalised to sum to 100. Away team is shown first, and diff is model minus market on the away side, so a negative number means the market is higher on the away team than the model is.
Week 5 Slate
| Game | Model away | Model home | Market away | Market home | Diff (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers@ Cowboys | 37% | 63% | 20% | 80% | +17 |
| Eaglesvs Jaguars | 45% | 55% | 27% | 73% | +18 |
| Bears@ Packers | 50% | 50% | 58% | 42% | −8 |
| Bengals@ Dolphins | 58% | 42% | 75% | 25% | −17 |
| Browns@ Jets | 55% | 45% | 46% | 54% | +9 |
| Texans@ Titans | 75% | 25% | 74% | 26% | +1 |
| Colts@ Steelers | 37% | 63% | 44% | 56% | −7 |
| Raiders@ Patriots | 21% | 79% | 37% | 63% | −16 |
| Vikings@ Saints | 72% | 28% | 55% | 45% | +17 |
| Giants@ Commanders | 44% | 56% | 38% | 62% | +6 |
| Broncos@ Chargers | 62% | 38% | 63% | 37% | −1 |
| Lions@ Cardinals | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 0 |
| 49ers@ Seahawks | 34% | 66% | 42% | 58% | −8 |
| Ravens@ Falcons | 56% | 44% | 54% | 46% | +2 |
| Bills@ Rams | 49% | 51% | 41% | 59% | +8 |
Mean absolute deviation is 9.0 points and the median is 8, with 11 of 15 games disagreeing by more than 5. Unlike Weeks 3 and 4 there is no home-field lean this time: the signed mean is +1.4, and the market is higher on the away team in only 6 of 15 games. The five widest gaps, all 16 points or more, fall into two groups. Two are about who is missing, which the ratings cannot see: Philadelphia's injury list in London and Tampa Bay's rookie quarterback in Dallas. The other three are about how much four games should count: the market is quicker than the model to believe in the Raiders' rise and the Dolphins' collapse, and slower to believe in the Vikings' unbeaten start.
Match by match
Buccaneers @ Cowboys Thu, Oct 8, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 37% | 20% | +17 |
| Cowboys | 63% | 80% | −17 |
Tampa Bay is 0–4 after a 14–17 home loss to Green Bay (down 14 to 1417, 25th), and has lost 69 rating points in four weeks. Dallas won a shootout at Houston 34–30 as a 30% underdog (up 23 to 1463, 19th). On the ratings alone the Cowboys are a 63% home favourite. The market has them at 80% because of who is at quarterback: Baker Mayfield is out for three to six weeks with a right thumb injury, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first road start on a short week. The same argument ran last week, when the market made Green Bay a 63% favourite in Daniels' first start and the model called it even. The market was right, but only just: the Packers won by three.
Eagles vs Jaguars Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 45% | 27% | +18 |
| Jaguars | 55% | 73% | −18 |
The widest gap of the week. Played at a neutral site, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, so neither side gets a home edge. Philadelphia has lost two straight, 7–27 at Chicago and then 20–24 at home to the Rams after blowing a late lead (down 18 to 1570, 11th). Jacksonville is 3–1 after winning 22–17 at Cincinnati (up 17 to 1613, 6th) and has climbed 49 points in four weeks. The ratings are 43 points apart, so the model makes the Jaguars only a modest favourite at 55%. The market has them at 73%. The reason is the Eagles' injury list: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all out, and Jalen Hurts completed just 12 of 27 passes for 93 yards against the Rams. The rating still carries much of the strong team Philadelphia was in preseason (1608) and knows nothing about who is missing.
Bears @ Packers Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Packers | 50% | 42% | +8 |
Chicago is 3–1 after beating the Jets 23–12 (up 10 to 1569, 12th) with Tyson Bagent at quarterback, and Caleb Williams is out again with his hamstring strain, so Bagent makes a second straight start. Green Bay won 17–14 at Tampa Bay (up 14 to 1506, 16th). The Bears' 63-point rating lead is cancelled out almost exactly by home field, so the model has this at 50–50. The market makes Chicago a 58% road favourite, a turnaround from two weeks ago, when it marked the Bears down for losing Williams and they beat Philadelphia 27–7 anyway. The NFL has moved this game to a noon Central kickoff.
Bengals @ Dolphins Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 58% | 75% | −17 |
| Dolphins | 42% | 25% | +17 |
Cincinnati has lost two straight, 27–30 at Pittsburgh and 17–22 at home to Jacksonville (down 17 to 1503, 17th). Miami is 0–4 after a 10–15 loss at Minnesota (down 7 to 1373, 28th) and has shed 74 points in four weeks. The model makes the Bengals a 58% road favourite; the market is far firmer at 75%, even though Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins has an adductor injury. The market is reading Miami as worse than even a 28th-ranked rating suggests: the Dolphins' rebuild under Malik Willis has produced four losses, and running back De'Von Achane is out with a torn ACL.
Browns @ Jets Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 55% | 46% | +9 |
| Jets | 45% | 54% | −9 |
Cleveland has won three straight after an opening loss, most recently 27–24 over Pittsburgh on Thursday night (up 16 to 1419, 23rd). The Jets have lost three straight since beating Tennessee in Week 1, the latest 12–23 at Chicago (down 10 to 1315, 31st). The 104-point ratings gap is bigger than the home edge, so the model makes Cleveland a 55% road favourite. The market flips it, Jets 54%. One reason for doubt about the Browns: all three of their wins have been by three or four points.
Texans @ Titans Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Titans | 25% | 26% | −1 |
A meeting of two winless teams. Houston lost a fourth straight, 30–34 at home to Dallas as a 70% favourite (down 23 to 1532, 14th), and the Texans and Chargers have each lost 93 points in four weeks, the most in the league. Tennessee lost 18–24 at Baltimore and is still the lowest-rated team at 1241. Model and market agree almost exactly: Houston around 75% on the road.
Colts @ Steelers Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 37% | 44% | −7 |
| Steelers | 63% | 56% | +7 |
Indianapolis beat Washington 30–13 in London, a result worth 29 points (up to 1461, 20th), the second-biggest gain of Week 4. Pittsburgh lost 24–27 at Cleveland on Thursday night (down 16 to 1508, 15th). The model makes the Steelers a 63% home favourite; the market is a little less sure at 56%. Pittsburgh has the rest advantage after its Thursday game, while the Colts come straight back from London without a bye.
Raiders @ Patriots Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 21% | 37% | −16 |
| Patriots | 79% | 63% | +16 |
A rating that is still catching up. Las Vegas is 3–1 and has gained 89 points in four weeks, the most in the league, but it started the season with the second-lowest rating in football (1301) and still sits 27th at 1391 after a 27–30 home loss to Kansas City. New England won 29–26 at Buffalo as a 29% underdog, with Drake Maye throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns (up 20 to 1597, 8th). The model makes the Patriots a 79% favourite; the market has the Raiders at 37%, well above the model's 21%. The Raiders have covered the spread in all four games. It is the same pattern our MLB postseason piece found with the White Sox: a team climbing from the bottom of the ratings, which the market prices on this season while the model still weighs where it started.
Vikings @ Saints Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 72% | 55% | +17 |
| Saints | 28% | 45% | −17 |
Minnesota is 4–0 and 4th in the ratings at 1632, up 66 points this season. New Orleans is 1–3 after the heaviest home defeat of Week 4, 24–45 to Atlanta, which cost 33 points, the biggest fall of the week (down to 1372, 29th). A 260-point ratings gap makes the Vikings a 72% road favourite on the model. The market has them at only 55%. The Vikings' unbeaten start has been built on narrow, low-scoring wins: 9–3 at Chicago and, last week, just 15–10 at home over a winless Miami as an 82% favourite. The market is treating that as a team winning closer than it should; the rating only counts that it won.
Giants @ Commanders Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 44% | 38% | +6 |
| Commanders | 56% | 62% | −6 |
New York beat Arizona 36–24 with Jameis Winston starting in place of the injured Jaxson Dart (up 20 to 1420, 22nd), a game the market had given to the Cardinals and the model to the Giants. Washington lost 13–30 to Indianapolis in London (down 29 to 1405, 26th), and Marcus Mariota aggravated a knee injury during it. The model makes Washington a 56% home favourite; the market goes further, to 62%, because Jayden Daniels is expected back from his dislocated elbow after a full week of practice. The rating has no way to know Washington's starter is returning.
Broncos @ Chargers Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Chargers | 38% | 37% | +1 |
Denver lost 14–24 at San Francisco (down 21 to 1609, 7th), and the Chargers are 0–4 after a 23–30 loss at Seattle (down 7 to 1440, 21st), having shed 93 points in four weeks. Model and market agree almost exactly: Broncos around 62–63% on the road.
Lions @ Cardinals Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Cardinals | 33% | 33% | 0 |
Detroit was upset 26–32 at Carolina as a 65% favourite (down 25 to 1560, 13th), and Arizona lost 24–36 at the Giants (down 20 to 1354, 30th). Exact agreement: Lions 67% on both sides.
49ers @ Seahawks Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 34% | 42% | −8 |
| Seahawks | 66% | 58% | +8 |
San Francisco is 4–0 after beating Denver 24–14 (up 21 to 1646, 3rd) and has gained 78 points this season, second only to the Raiders. Seattle beat the Chargers 30–23 and remains the top-rated team in football at 1720. That 74-point gap plus home field makes the Seahawks a 66% favourite on the model; the market has them at 58%, giving more weight to the 49ers' unbeaten start and Brock Purdy's nine touchdowns against one interception, despite pass-rush injuries that kept Nick Bosa out last week.
Ravens @ Falcons Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Falcons | 44% | 46% | −2 |
Baltimore beat Tennessee 24–18 (up 5 to 1583, 10th). Atlanta has followed an 0–2 start with two road blowouts, 35–14 at Green Bay and 45–24 at New Orleans, the latter the biggest gain of Week 4 (up 33 to 1468, 18th). Close agreement: Ravens 54–56% on the road.
Bills @ Rams Mon, Oct 12, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 49% | 41% | +8 |
| Rams | 51% | 59% | −8 |
Buffalo lost for the first time, 26–29 at home to New England as a 71% favourite (down 20 to 1677), but is still 2nd in the ratings. The Rams won 24–20 at Philadelphia (up 18 to 1620, 5th). Buffalo's 57-point lead is cancelled out almost exactly by home field, so the model has a coin flip, Bills 49%. The market makes the Bills underdogs for the first time this season, at 41%.