Introduction
The NFC South splits cleanly into two pairs. Tampa Bay and Atlanta both have the market well below our model, and both have a clear, specific reason: the Buccaneers lost Mike Evans to a division rival in free agency and Baker Mayfield reported to camp on an unresolved contract, while the Falcons are still managing Michael Penix Jr.'s recovery from a torn ACL, with Tua Tagovailoa now the presumptive Week 1 starter as a result. New Orleans and Carolina run the other way, with the market ahead of the model. The Saints are riding the strength of a torrid four-game winning streak to close 2025 under Tyler Shough that a full-season rating underweights, and the Panthers on real defensive investment (Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd) around a Bryce Young entering year three, even with a couple of real training-camp injuries (Taylor Moton, Chris Brazzell II) complicating the picture.
This preview covers three things for every team in the NFC South: how hard their 2026 schedule actually is, what our model thinks their real week-by-week chances look like across the season, and how our model's read on the division race compares to what the market is currently pricing, including the real 2026 offseason news (roster moves, injuries, coaching changes, quarterback situations) behind any gap between the two.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule measures something different from the model-vs-market numbers elsewhere in this article. It holds every team at a flat, perfectly average 1500 rating and asks how many games that hypothetical average team would be expected to win against each team's real 2026 opponents, at the real venue for each game. Because every team is measured against the same constant, the only things that can move the number are who you play and where. In the NFC South, New Orleans Saints has the easiest remaining schedule (rank #2 of 32 league-wide), and Carolina Panthers has the hardest (rank #24). The full methodology is explained in how Strength of Schedule works, and every division is broken down in our full Strength of Schedule article.
| Team | Schedule Difficulty Rank | Home / Away / Neutral | Avg Opponent Rating | Expected Wins at 1500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | #2 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1463 | 9.2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | #8 of 32 | 9 / 8 / 0 | 1487 | 8.8 |
| Atlanta Falcons | #9 of 32 | 8 / 8 / 1 | 1487 | 8.8 |
| Carolina Panthers | #24 of 32 | 9 / 8 / 0 | 1518 | 8.2 |
2026 Season Win Probabilities
These numbers use each team's real, current SharpModels rating, not the flat 1500 rating used for Strength of Schedule above, so they reflect our actual read on how good each team is, not just how hard their schedule is. "Model Expected Wins" sums our model's real win probability across every remaining 2026 game. The toughest and easiest games below are each team's single most lopsided real matchup on the schedule, in either direction. For the full week-by-week breakdown of any team's 2026 schedule, visit their team page linked in the tables on this page.
| Team | SharpModels Power Rank | 2026 Model Expected Wins | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | #18 of 32 | 8.5 | at Detroit Lions, Week 11 (31%) | vs. Cleveland Browns, Week 2 (69%) |
| Atlanta Falcons | #21 of 32 | 7.8 | at Minnesota Vikings, Week 12 (30%) | vs. Carolina Panthers, Week 2 (65%) |
| New Orleans Saints | #25 of 32 | 7.4 | at Detroit Lions, Week 1 (23%) | vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 3 (69%) |
| Carolina Panthers | #26 of 32 | 6.1 | at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6 (20%) | vs. New Orleans Saints, Week 14 (55%) |
NFC South: Model vs. Market
| Team | 2025 Record | SharpModels Rating | Model Division Win % | Market Division Win % | Model vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 | 1486 | 39% | 29% | +10pp |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8-9 | 1450 | 27% | 20% | +7pp |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-11 | 1405 | 22% | 29% | -7pp |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-9 | 1386 | 12% | 22% | -10pp |
Team by Team
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 8-9 (380 points scored, 411 allowed, a -31 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1486. Our model gives them a 39% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 29%. Put another way, our model is 10 points more confident in Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning the division than the market is.
Model likely higher than market because the market has priced in the loss of Mike Evans to the 49ers and Mayfield's unresolved contract situation, negative offseason news our results-based model (trained on 2025 games with Evans still on the roster) hasn't accounted for.
The Bucs lost franchise icon WR Mike Evans in free agency, he signed a 3-year, up-to-$60.4M deal with San Francisco, ending his 12-year run in Tampa and removing a key downfield target from Baker Mayfield's arsenal. Mayfield himself reported to 2026 training camp without a new contract in hand, an unresolved extension situation that adds uncertainty even though he appears healthy after an injury-marred 2025 (MCL/PCL sprain, biceps and shoulder issues). All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. dealt with a lower-leg issue early in camp but is expected to be ready for the opener. Roster reinforcements were modest, LB Alex Anzalone, OLB Al-Quadin Muhammad, RB Kenneth Gainwell in free agency, first-round edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. in the draft, but nothing that offsets losing a top-tier receiver.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 8-9 (353 points scored, 401 allowed, a -48 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1450. Our model gives them a 27% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 20%. Put another way, our model is 7 points more confident in Atlanta Falcons winning the division than the market is.
Model likely higher than market because the market is pricing in Michael Penix Jr.'s still-unresolved ACL recovery, an unresolved Tua/Penix QB competition, and a first-year head coach, none of which a results-based model built on 2025's roster and staff would price in.
Atlanta fired Raheem Morris and hired Kevin Stefanski (a five-year deal) as head coach, with Tommy Rees as the new OC and Jeff Ulbrich retained as DC. QB Michael Penix Jr. tore his left ACL on November 16, 2025 and had surgery with a roughly 9-month recovery, as of early August 2026 he's still limited to individual/7-on-7 work in camp, not yet cleared for full-contact team drills. In response, Atlanta signed Tua Tagovailoa in free agency; it's a genuine, ongoing competition between the two (Tua has taken the bulk of starter reps while Penix was out, but Tua is also nursing his own back issue in camp). Kirk Cousins was released at the start of the 2026 league year. On defense the Falcons added DE Cameron Thomas and an interior run-stopper but lost LB depth with Kaden Elliss departing; they also do not have a 2026 first-round pick (traded to the Rams for James Pearce Jr. in 2025). The net effect is real uncertainty at the game's most important position heading into the season, compounded by a first-year head coach.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints missed the playoffs last season. They finished the regular season at 6-11 (306 points scored, 383 allowed, a -77 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1405. Our model gives them a 22% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 29%. Put another way, the market is 7 points more confident in New Orleans Saints winning the division than our model is.
Market likely higher than our model because it's crediting the Saints' strong late-2025 finish under Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough plus offseason weapon additions (Etienne, Tyson, Fant), momentum our model, anchored to the team's rough 6-11 full-season record including a 2-10 start, likely hasn't fully captured.
Second-year coach Kellen Moore has committed to Tyler Shough as the unquestioned 2026 starting QB after Shough went 5-4 down the stretch of 2025 (67.6% completion, 2,384 yards, 10 TD) and the Saints closed the year winning four straight, including a 4-0 December, a late-season surge that a model trained mostly on full-season aggregate results may underweight. New Orleans added RB Travis Etienne Jr., TE Noah Fant, G David Edwards, and traded for edge rusher Tyree Wilson, while drafting WR Jordyn Tyson 8th overall to give Shough more weapons; they did lose defensive leadership with LB Demario Davis (to the Jets) and CB Alontae Taylor departing in free agency. Backup QB competition (Zach Wilson signed, Spencer Rattler retained) is a non-issue for the starting job. No major QB injury or coaching change beyond the continuity under Moore is reported.
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers reached the Wild Card round last season before losing to the Los Angeles Rams. They finished the regular season at 8-9 (311 points scored, 380 allowed, a -69 point differential), giving them a SharpModels rating of 1386. Our model gives them a 12% chance to win the division; the market currently has them at 22%. Put another way, the market is 10 points more confident in Carolina Panthers winning the division than our model is.
Market likely higher than our model because it's crediting Carolina's offseason talent upgrades (defensive additions like Phillips and Lloyd, O-line investment) and belief in continued development under Canales/Young, even as our own research surfaced camp injuries (Moton, Brazzell) that could complicate a fast start, so this gap looks driven more by roster-trajectory optimism than by a single clean positive event.
Bryce Young enters 2026 entrenched as the starting QB with no QB competition, though the Panthers have not extended him and no long-term deal is expected this year. Head coach Dave Canales and GM Dan Morgan invested in the defense this offseason, adding pieces like Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd to DC Ejiro Evero's unit, plus offensive line additions (first-round LT Monroe Freeling, OT Rasheed Walker); Evero returns as DC (his job could be in play again after 2026, but no change has happened yet). Training camp brought real injury concerns: starting RT Taylor Moton was diagnosed with a blood clot in his lung in late June and will miss the start of the season with no clear return date; third-round rookie WR Chris Brazzell II is out for the whole 2026 season with a torn LCL; and CB Jaycee Horn and WR Xavier Legette each had camp injury scares (Horn has already returned to practice). Despite the camp injuries, the broader narrative is a roster and coaching staff seen as improving and more talented than the one that went 8-9 in 2025.
What This Means
Every number above splits into two very different kinds of information. The SharpModels rating and the 2025 record, points scored and conceded are all backward-looking: they describe the team that actually took the field in 2025. The model's division-win probability is built from that same backward-looking rating. The market price, on the other hand, is forward-looking by construction: it reflects everything bettors currently know, including offseason trades, injuries, coaching changes and training-camp news that hasn't happened on a football field yet.
A gap between the model and the market isn't a sign that one side is simply wrong. It's the clearest signal we have of exactly how much the market believes a specific piece of offseason news should move a team, before there's a single 2026 result to confirm it one way or the other. Where we found a clear, specific real-world reason for a gap, we've said so directly above. Where we didn't find one, we've said that too, rather than inventing a tidy explanation.
This article is a one-off, fixed at the moment of publication. It will not be edited or kept current as the season goes on, and the offseason news cited above reflects what was reported as of the publication date. For the always-current version of the underlying ratings and schedule data, see the live NFL Strength of Schedule page and each team's own playoff chances page. The Strength of Schedule methodology referenced in this piece is explained in full in how Strength of Schedule works.