Patriots @ Bills

NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Patriots 29 - Bills 26
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
New England
Patriots
1-2 Rating 1578
Form: WLLWL
29 – 26
Model Probability
29%
71%
Projected margin: Buffalo Bills +7.4
Buffalo
Bills
3-0 Rating 1696
Form: WLWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Patriots Bills
All-time wins 68 44
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average points 22.4 19.1
Last meeting 31 35

Key Season Stats

Stat Patriots Bills
Games played 3 3
Avg points scored 12.0 33.7
Avg points conceded 17.0 26.0
Win percentage 33% 100%
Away win % / Home win % 0% 100%