Final Score: Chargers 3 - Patriots 16
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 8:15 PM ET

Chargers @ Patriots

NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Chargers
11-6 Rating 1565
Form: WWWLL
Model Probability
40%
60%
Projected margin: New England Patriots +4.6
Patriots
14-3 Rating 1586
Form: WLWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Chargers Patriots
All-time wins 6 20
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average points 19.1 26.0
Last meeting 40 7

Key Season Stats

Stat Chargers Patriots
Games played 17 17
Avg points scored 21.6 28.8
Avg points conceded 20.0 18.8
Win percentage 65% 82%
Away win % / Home win % 62% 67%