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Final Score: Chargers 0 - Bills 0
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

Chargers @ Bills

NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Chargers
0-2 Rating 1456
Form: LLLLL
Chargers
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Model Probability
19%
81%
Projected margin: Buffalo Bills +10.4
Bills
2-0 Rating 1688
Form: WWLWW
Bills
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Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Full Playoff Chances

Chargers

Scenario PlayoffsDivisionConferenceTitle
Now 11%4%1%<1%
If Win 21%8%2%1%
If Lose 9%3%<1%<1%

Bills

Scenario PlayoffsDivisionConferenceTitle
Now 93%71%29%15%
If Win 94%74%31%17%
If Lose 83%58%19%10%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Full head-to-head
Stat Chargers Bills
All-time wins 15 7
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average points 26.8 17.3
Last meeting 22 24

Key Season Stats

Stat Chargers Bills
Games played 2 2
Avg points scored 14.0 38.5
Avg points conceded 26.0 31.0
Win percentage 0% 100%
Away win % / Home win % - 100%

Recent Results

Chargers

vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sep 20, 2026 · Margin: -12 · Total: 40
14-26
vs Arizona Cardinals
Sep 13, 2026 · Margin: -12 · Total: 40
14-26
@ New England Patriots
Jan 11, 2026 · Margin: -13 · Total: 19
3-16
@ Denver Broncos
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: -16 · Total: 22
3-19
vs Houston Texans
Dec 27, 2025 · Margin: -4 · Total: 36
16-20
@ Dallas Cowboys
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: +17 · Total: 51
34-17
@ Kansas City Chiefs
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 29
16-13
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Dec 8, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 41
22-19
vs Las Vegas Raiders
Nov 30, 2025 · Margin: +17 · Total: 45
31-14
@ Jacksonville Jaguars
Nov 16, 2025 · Margin: -29 · Total: 41
6-35

Bills

vs Detroit Lions
Sep 17, 2026 · Margin: +10 · Total: 72
41-31
@ Houston Texans
Sep 13, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 67
36-31
@ Denver Broncos
Jan 17, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 63
30-33
@ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jan 11, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 51
27-24
vs New York Jets
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: +27 · Total: 43
35-8
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 25
12-13
@ Cleveland Browns
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 43
23-20
@ New England Patriots
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 66
35-31
vs Cincinnati Bengals
Dec 7, 2025 · Margin: +5 · Total: 73
39-34
@ Pittsburgh Steelers
Nov 30, 2025 · Margin: +19 · Total: 33
26-7