Final Score: Blue Jays 5 - Padres 3
Friday, July 10, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET

Blue Jays @ Padres

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Blue Jays
44-49 Rating 1517
Form: LLLWW
Model Probability
46%
54%
Projected margin: San Diego Padres +0.3
Padres
46-47 Rating 1521
Form: WLWWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Blue Jays Padres
All-time wins 14 10
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average runs 4.6 4.0
Last meeting 7 6

Key Season Stats

Stat Blue Jays Padres
Games played 93 93
Avg runs scored 4.0 3.9
Avg runs conceded 4.4 4.4
Win percentage 47% 49%
Away win % / Home win % 45% 52%