โ† Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Wales vs Portugal
UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 6
Tue, Nov 17, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Wales vs Portugal Prediction & Win Probability

Portugal has a 60% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.

Rating 1722 · World #38
Form: LDWWL
VS
Rating 1945 · World #7
Form: WLWDW
Model Probability
16%
60%
Draw 24%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand1%8%24%66%
Wales win 6%18%30%46%
Draw 1%9%27%63%
Portugal win <1%6%22%73%

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand63%26%9%1%
Wales win 45%31%19%5%
Draw 57%30%12%1%
Portugal win 71%23%6%<1%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Norway 1 3 1853 29% 47% 19% 6%
2 Portugal 1 3 1945 63% 26% 9% 1%
3 Denmark 1 0 1825 7% 19% 48% 27%
4 Wales 1 0 1722 1% 8% 24% 66%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
WalesStatPortugal
5-2-3Won-Drawn-Lost5-3-2
2.2Avg goals scored2.1
1.3Avg goals conceded0.8
1722Rating1945
#38World rank#7

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
WalesStatPortugal
0Wins (2 meetings, 0 draws)2
0Last 2 meetings (0 draws)2
0.0Average goals1.5
Last meeting (Thu, Sep 24, 2026, Nations League): Portugal 1–0 Wales

Recent Results

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

@ Portugal
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 11%
0–1
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 59%
1–1
vs North Macedonia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 54%
7–1
@ Liechtenstein
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 92%
1–0
vs Belgium
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 21%
2–4

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

vs Wales
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 70%
1–0
vs Spain
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 24%
0–1
vs Croatia
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–1
@ Colombia
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 36%
0–0
vs Uzbekistan
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 68%
5–0