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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 6
Tue, Nov 17, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Wales vs Portugal Prediction & Win Probability

Portugal has a 63% chance to win, with a 23% chance of a draw.

Rating 1718 · World #41
Form: LWLLD
VS
Rating 1961 · World #6
Form: WWWWL
Model Probability
14%
63%
Draw 23%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%3%29%68%
Wales win <1%13%40%48%
Draw <1%3%32%65%
Portugal win <1%1%25%74%

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand100%<1%<1%<1%
Wales win 96%4%<1%<1%
Draw 100%<1%<1%<1%
Portugal win 100%<1%<1%<1%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Portugal 4 12 1961 100% <1% <1% <1%
2 Denmark 4 6 1829 <1% 62% 35% 2%
3 Wales 4 3 1718 <1% 3% 29% 68%
4 Norway 4 3 1837 <1% 34% 36% 30%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
WalesStatPortugal
4-1-5Won-Drawn-Lost7-2-1
1.7Avg goals scored2.6
1.5Avg goals conceded0.8
1718Rating1961
#41World rank#6

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
WalesStatPortugal
0Wins (2 meetings, 0 draws)2
0Last 2 meetings (0 draws)2
0.0Average goals1.5
Last meeting (Thu, Sep 24, 2026, Nations League): Portugal 1–0 Wales