UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 5
Sat, Nov 14, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM GMT

Norway vs Wales Prediction & Win Probability

Norway has a 57% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.

Rating 1837 · World #17
Form: LLLWD
VS
Rating 1718 · World #41
Form: LWLLD
Model Probability
57%
18%
Draw 26%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%34%36%30%
Norway win <1%49%48%3%
Draw <1%22%27%51%
Wales win <1%4%10%86%

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%3%29%68%
Norway win <1%<1%3%97%
Draw <1%2%51%47%
Wales win <1%15%81%4%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Portugal 4 12 1961 100% <1% <1% <1%
2 Denmark 4 6 1829 <1% 62% 35% 2%
3 Wales 4 3 1718 <1% 3% 29% 68%
4 Norway 4 3 1837 <1% 34% 36% 30%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
NorwayStatWales
5-1-4Won-Drawn-Lost4-1-5
1.9Avg goals scored1.7
1.8Avg goals conceded1.5
1837Rating1718
#17World rank#41

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
NorwayStatWales
0Wins (2 meetings, 0 draws)2
0Last 2 meetings (0 draws)2
1.0Average goals3.0
Last meeting (Thu, Oct 1, 2026, Nations League): Wales 2–1 Norway