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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 1
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Norway vs Denmark Prediction & Win Probability

Norway has a 43% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1848 · World #16
Form: DWWLW
VS
Rating 1830 · World #19
Form: DWLDW
Model Probability
43%
28%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand22%33%30%15%
Norway win 33%41%20%6%
Draw 18%33%33%16%
Denmark win 8%21%44%27%

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand16%30%34%20%
Norway win 8%21%43%29%
Draw 16%32%32%19%
Denmark win 30%43%20%6%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Portugal 0 0 1942 58% 25% 12% 4%
Norway 0 0 1848 22% 33% 30% 15%
Denmark 0 0 1830 16% 30% 34% 20%
Wales 0 0 1724 4% 11% 24% 61%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
NorwayStatDenmark
8-1-1Won-Drawn-Lost5-3-2
3.7Avg goals scored2.4
1.3Avg goals conceded1.1
1848Rating1830
#16World rank#19

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
NorwayStatDenmark
0Wins (5 meetings, 2 draws)3
0Last 5 meetings (2 draws)3
0.8Average goals1.8
Last meeting (Sat, Jun 8, 2024, Friendly): Denmark 3–1 Norway

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway

vs England
Sat, Jul 11, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
1–1
@ Brazil
Sun, Jul 5, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
2–1
@ Ivory Coast
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–1
vs France
Fri, Jun 26, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 15%
1–4
vs Senegal
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 39%
3–2

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

@ Czech Republic
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–1
vs North Macedonia
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 70%
4–0
@ Scotland
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–4
vs Belarus
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 86%
2–2
vs Greece
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
3–1