UEFA Nations League Group Outlook

Each nation's chance of finishing in every group position, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining group matches. Darker cells are more likely.

Group	Team	Quarter-finals	Relegation play-off	Relegated to League B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1	France	100%	<1%	<1%	90%	10%	<1%	<1%
1	Italy	45%	55%	<1%	9%	37%	55%	<1%
1	Belgium	55%	45%	<1%	2%	54%	45%	<1%
1	Turkey	<1%	<1%	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	100%
2	Netherlands	87%	13%	<1%	65%	22%	13%	<1%
2	Greece	86%	14%	<1%	23%	62%	14%	<1%
2	Germany	27%	70%	2%	12%	16%	70%	2%
2	Serbia	<1%	2%	98%	<1%	<1%	2%	98%
3	Spain	100%	<1%	<1%	92%	8%	<1%	<1%
3	England	98%	2%	<1%	8%	90%	2%	<1%
3	Croatia	2%	92%	6%	<1%	2%	92%	6%
3	Czech Republic	<1%	6%	94%	<1%	<1%	6%	94%
4	Portugal	100%	<1%	<1%	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	Denmark	62%	35%	2%	<1%	62%	35%	2%
4	Norway	34%	36%	30%	<1%	34%	36%	30%
4	Wales	3%	29%	68%	<1%	3%	29%	68%

Group	Team	Promoted to League A	Promotion play-off	Relegation play-off	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1	Switzerland	98%	2%	<1%	98%	2%	<1%	<1%
1	Slovenia	2%	92%	<1%	2%	92%	6%	<1%
1	Scotland	<1%	6%	5%	<1%	6%	88%	5%
1	North Macedonia	<1%	<1%	95%	<1%	<1%	5%	95%
2	Hungary	56%	32%	<1%	56%	32%	11%	<1%
2	Northern Ireland	38%	42%	<1%	38%	42%	20%	<1%
2	Ukraine	6%	24%	16%	6%	24%	55%	16%
2	Georgia	<1%	2%	84%	<1%	2%	14%	84%
3	Austria	86%	13%	<1%	86%	13%	1%	<1%
3	Ireland	12%	37%	4%	12%	37%	48%	4%
3	Kosovo	3%	47%	15%	3%	47%	35%	15%
3	Israel	<1%	2%	81%	<1%	2%	16%	81%
4	Sweden	80%	18%	<1%	80%	18%	1%	<1%
4	Bosnia & Herzegovina	19%	74%	<1%	19%	74%	6%	<1%
4	Poland	<1%	8%	7%	<1%	8%	85%	7%
4	Romania	<1%	<1%	93%	<1%	<1%	7%	93%

Group	Team	Promoted to League B	Promotion play-off	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1	Albania	54%	26%	54%	26%	21%	<1%
1	Finland	24%	32%	24%	32%	44%	<1%
1	Belarus	22%	42%	22%	42%	36%	<1%
1	San Marino	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	100%
2	Montenegro	94%	6%	94%	6%	<1%	<1%
2	Cyprus	6%	65%	6%	65%	29%	<1%
2	Armenia	<1%	29%	<1%	29%	64%	7%
2	Latvia	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	7%	93%
3	Slovakia	100%	<1%	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	Faroe Islands	<1%	46%	<1%	46%	32%	22%
3	Moldova	<1%	43%	<1%	43%	33%	23%
3	Kazakhstan	<1%	11%	<1%	11%	35%	55%
4	Iceland	84%	13%	84%	13%	3%	<1%
4	Estonia	9%	51%	9%	51%	26%	14%
4	Bulgaria	5%	29%	5%	29%	40%	26%
4	Luxembourg	2%	7%	2%	7%	31%	60%

In League C, 4th place leads to a ranking of the four bottom sides, decided on goals, so there's no relegation percentage here.

Group	Team	Promoted to League C	1st	2nd	3rd
1	Malta	100%	93%	7%	<1%
1	Gibraltar	100%	7%	63%	30%
1	Andorra	100%	<1%	30%	70%
2	Azerbaijan	100%	74%	25%	<1%
2	Lithuania	100%	24%	69%	7%
2	Liechtenstein	100%	2%	6%	92%

How these numbers work

Every match is priced from our international Elo ratings, with a 40-point boost for the home side.
Teams level on points are split by head-to-head points, as UEFA's rules do first. If they're still level, the simulation splits them at random, because UEFA's next tiebreakers use goals and we only predict win, draw or loss, never scorelines.