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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 4
Sun, Oct 4, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Wales vs Denmark Prediction & Win Probability

Denmark has a 44% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1724 · World #38
Form: DWWLW
VS
Rating 1830 · World #19
Form: DWLDW
Model Probability
27%
44%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand4%11%24%61%
Wales win 8%22%35%35%
Draw 3%11%24%62%
Denmark win 1%5%17%76%

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand16%30%34%20%
Wales win 7%21%31%41%
Draw 13%30%37%20%
Denmark win 24%36%33%7%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Portugal 0 0 1942 58% 25% 12% 4%
Norway 0 0 1848 22% 33% 30% 15%
Denmark 0 0 1830 16% 30% 34% 20%
Wales 0 0 1724 4% 11% 24% 61%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
WalesStatDenmark
6-2-2Won-Drawn-Lost5-3-2
2.6Avg goals scored2.4
1.3Avg goals conceded1.1
1724Rating1830
#38World rank#19

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
WalesStatDenmark
0Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)3
0Last 3 meetings (0 draws)3
0.33Average goals2.67
Last meeting (Sat, Jun 26, 2021, Euro): Wales 0–4 Denmark

Recent Results

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 59%
1–1
vs North Macedonia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 54%
7–1
@ Liechtenstein
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 92%
1–0
vs Belgium
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 21%
2–4
@ Kazakhstan
Thu, Sep 4, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 68%
1–0

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

@ Czech Republic
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–1
vs North Macedonia
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 70%
4–0
@ Scotland
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–4
vs Belarus
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 86%
2–2
vs Greece
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
3–1