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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 3
Thu, Oct 1, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Denmark vs Portugal Prediction & Win Probability

Portugal has a 46% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.

Rating 1825 · World #19
Form: LDWLD
VS
Rating 1945 · World #7
Form: WLWDW
Model Probability
25%
46%
Draw 29%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand7%19%48%27%
Denmark win 18%30%37%14%
Draw 6%19%50%26%
Portugal win 1%12%52%35%

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand63%26%9%1%
Denmark win 45%30%22%4%
Draw 60%30%9%<1%
Portugal win 76%22%2%<1%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Norway 1 3 1853 29% 47% 19% 6%
2 Portugal 1 3 1945 63% 26% 9% 1%
3 Denmark 1 0 1825 7% 19% 48% 27%
4 Wales 1 0 1722 1% 8% 24% 66%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
DenmarkStatPortugal
4-3-3Won-Drawn-Lost5-3-2
2.5Avg goals scored2.1
1.4Avg goals conceded0.8
1825Rating1945
#19World rank#7

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
DenmarkStatPortugal
2Wins (7 meetings, 0 draws)5
1Last 5 meetings (0 draws)4
1.14Average goals1.71
Last meeting (Sun, Mar 23, 2025, Nations League): Portugal 3–2 Denmark

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

@ Norway
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 28%
2–3
@ Czech Republic
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–1
vs North Macedonia
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 70%
4–0
@ Scotland
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–4
vs Belarus
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 86%
2–2

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

vs Wales
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 70%
1–0
vs Spain
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 24%
0–1
vs Croatia
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–1
@ Colombia
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 36%
0–0
vs Uzbekistan
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 68%
5–0