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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 4
Sun, Oct 4, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Portugal vs Norway Prediction & Win Probability

Portugal has a 53% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.

Rating 1945 · World #7
Form: WLWDW
VS
Rating 1853 · World #16
Form: WDWWL
Model Probability
53%
20%
Draw 27%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand63%26%9%1%
Portugal win 80%16%4%<1%
Draw 54%32%12%2%
Norway win 30%48%20%3%

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand29%47%19%6%
Portugal win 12%56%24%8%
Draw 36%41%18%4%
Norway win 64%28%7%1%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Norway 1 3 1853 29% 47% 19% 6%
2 Portugal 1 3 1945 63% 26% 9% 1%
3 Denmark 1 0 1825 7% 19% 48% 27%
4 Wales 1 0 1722 1% 8% 24% 66%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
PortugalStatNorway
5-3-2Won-Drawn-Lost8-1-1
2.1Avg goals scored2.9
0.8Avg goals conceded1.4
1945Rating1853
#7World rank#16

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
PortugalStatNorway
2Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)1
2Last 3 meetings (0 draws)1
1.33Average goals0.33
Last meeting (Sun, May 29, 2016, Friendly): Portugal 3–0 Norway

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

vs Wales
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 70%
1–0
vs Spain
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 24%
0–1
vs Croatia
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–1
@ Colombia
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 36%
0–0
vs Uzbekistan
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 68%
5–0

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway

vs Denmark
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 43%
3–2
vs England
Sat, Jul 11, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
1–1
@ Brazil
Sun, Jul 5, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
2–1
@ Ivory Coast
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–1
vs France
Fri, Jun 26, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 15%
1–4