UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 3
Thu, Oct 1, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Wales vs Norway Prediction & Win Probability

Norway has a 46% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.

Rating 1724 · World #38
Form: DWWLW
VS
Rating 1848 · World #16
Form: DWWLW
Model Probability
25%
46%
Draw 29%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand4%11%24%61%
Wales win 9%24%32%35%
Draw 3%11%25%61%
Norway win 1%5%19%74%

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand22%33%30%15%
Wales win 12%23%31%34%
Draw 17%32%36%16%
Norway win 29%39%27%5%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Portugal 0 0 1942 58% 25% 12% 4%
– Norway 0 0 1848 22% 33% 30% 15%
– Denmark 0 0 1830 16% 30% 34% 20%
– Wales 0 0 1724 4% 11% 24% 61%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
WalesStatNorway
6-2-2Won-Drawn-Lost8-1-1
2.6Avg goals scored3.7
1.3Avg goals conceded1.3
1724Rating1848
#38World rank#16

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
WalesStatNorway
1Wins (1 meeting, 0 draws)0
1Last 1 meeting (0 draws)0
4.0Average goals1.0
Last meeting (Sat, Nov 12, 2011, Friendly): Wales 4–1 Norway

Recent Results

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales

vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 59%
1–1
vs North Macedonia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 54%
7–1
@ Liechtenstein
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 92%
1–0
vs Belgium
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 21%
2–4
@ Kazakhstan
Thu, Sep 4, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 68%
1–0

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway

vs England
Sat, Jul 11, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
1–1
@ Brazil
Sun, Jul 5, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
2–1
@ Ivory Coast
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–1
vs France
Fri, Jun 26, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 15%
1–4
vs Senegal
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 39%
3–2