Final Score: Pirates 2 - Reds 3
Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET

Pirates @ Reds

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Pirates
55-54 Rating 1485
Form: LWWLL
Model Probability
46%
54%
Projected margin: Cincinnati Reds +0.3
Reds
50-57 Rating 1487
Form: LWLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Pirates Reds
All-time wins 395 436
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average runs 4.3 4.5
Last meeting 9 4

Key Season Stats

Stat Pirates Reds
Games played 109 107
Avg runs scored 5.2 4.1
Avg runs conceded 4.8 4.8
Win percentage 50% 47%
Away win % / Home win % 50% 43%