Final Score: Blue Jays 4 - Padres 5
Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET

Blue Jays @ Padres

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Blue Jays
45-50 Rating 1517
Form: LWWWL
Model Probability
46%
54%
Projected margin: San Diego Padres +0.3
Padres
47-48 Rating 1521
Form: WWLLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Blue Jays Padres
All-time wins 15 11
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average runs 4.7 4.2
Last meeting 7 8

Key Season Stats

Stat Blue Jays Padres
Games played 95 95
Avg runs scored 4.1 3.9
Avg runs conceded 4.4 4.4
Win percentage 47% 49%
Away win % / Home win % 46% 52%