Final Score: Cardinals 4 - Cubs 6
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET

Cardinals @ Cubs

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Cardinals
47-39 Rating 1508
Form: WLWWW
Model Probability
43%
57%
Projected margin: Chicago Cubs +0.5
Cubs
49-40 Rating 1531
Form: WWWLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Cardinals Cubs
All-time wins 480 468
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average runs 4.4 4.2
Last meeting 3 0

Key Season Stats

Stat Cardinals Cubs
Games played 86 89
Avg runs scored 4.6 5.0
Avg runs conceded 4.5 4.6
Win percentage 55% 55%
Away win % / Home win % 57% 58%