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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 6
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Belgium vs Italy Prediction & Win Probability

Belgium has a 42% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1894 · World #10
Form: LWLWL
VS
Rating 1877 · World #12
Form: WDWLD
Model Probability
42%
28%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand2%54%45%<1%
Belgium win 4%90%6%<1%
Draw <1%51%49%<1%
Italy win <1%<1%99%<1%

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand9%37%55%<1%
Belgium win <1%6%93%<1%
Draw 6%42%51%<1%
Italy win 23%77%<1%<1%

League A ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 France 4 10 2020 90% 10% <1% <1%
2 Italy 4 7 1877 9% 37% 55% <1%
3 Belgium 4 6 1894 2% 54% 45% <1%
4 Turkey 4 0 1754 <1% <1% <1% 100%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
BelgiumStatItaly
4-3-3Won-Drawn-Lost6-2-2
1.9Avg goals scored2.0
1.2Avg goals conceded1.1
1894Rating1877
#10World rank#12

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
BelgiumStatItaly
2Wins (7 meetings, 1 draw)4
1Last 5 meetings (1 draw)3
1.29Average goals1.43
Last meeting (Fri, Sep 25, 2026, Nations League): Italy 0–2 Belgium