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← Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / France vs Italy
UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 3
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:45 PM BST

France vs Italy Prediction & Win Probability

France has a 60% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.

France
Rating 2009 · World #3
Form: LLWWW
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VS
Italy
Rating 1866 · World #13
Form: DWLWW
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Model Probability
60%
16%
Draw 24%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result
Full Group Outlook

🇫🇷 France

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand65%22%10%3%
France win 76%18%5%1%
Draw 56%26%13%4%
Italy win 36%33%23%9%

🇮🇹 Italy

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand13%30%34%23%
France win 5%30%38%28%
Draw 17%30%34%19%
Italy win 37%31%22%10%

League A · Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– France 0 0 2009 65% 22% 10% 3%
– Belgium 0 0 1890 18% 34% 30% 18%
– Italy 0 0 1866 13% 30% 34% 23%
– Turkey 0 0 1780 4% 13% 26% 57%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
FranceStatItaly
8-0-2Won-Drawn-Lost7-1-2
2.7Avg goals scored2.4
1.1Avg goals conceded1.3
2009Rating1866
#3World rank#13

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Full head-to-head
FranceStatItaly
4Wins (5 meetings, 0 draws)1
4Last 5 meetings (0 draws)1
2.4Average goals1.4
Last meeting (Sun, Nov 17, 2024, Nations League): Italy 1–3 France

Recent Results

🇫🇷 France

vs England
Sat, Jul 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 43%
4–6
vs Spain
Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 33%
0–2
vs Morocco
Thu, Jul 9, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 57%
2–0
@ Paraguay
Sat, Jul 4, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
1–0
vs Sweden
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
3–0

🇮🇹 Italy

@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 67%
1–1
vs Northern Ireland
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0
vs Norway
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–4
@ Moldova
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 89%
2–0
vs Israel
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 77%
3–0