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Final Score: Italy 3–1 Turkey

UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 4

Mon, Oct 5, 2026 · 7:45 PM BST

Italy vs Turkey Prediction & Win Probability

Before kickoff, Italy had a 56% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.

Rating 1877 · World #12

Form: DWLDW

VS

Rating 1754 · World #27

Form: LLLWL

Pre-match probability

56%

18%

Draw 26%

#	Team	P	Pts	Rating	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1	France	4	10	2020	90%	10%	<1%	<1%
2	Italy	4	7	1877	9%	37%	55%	<1%
3	Belgium	4	6	1894	2%	54%	45%	<1%
4	Turkey	4	0	1754	<1%	<1%	<1%	100%

Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Italy	Stat	Turkey
5-2-2	Won-Drawn-Lost	3-1-5
1.89	Avg goals scored	0.89
1.11	Avg goals conceded	1.67
1877	Rating	1754
#12	World rank	#27

Italy	Stat	Turkey
4	Wins (5 meetings, 1 draw)	0
4	Last 5 meetings (1 draw)	0
2.6	Average goals	0.8

Last meeting (Mon, Oct 5, 2026, Nations League): Italy 3–1 Turkey

Recent Results

🇮🇹 Italy

Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 15%

Mon, Sep 28, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 40%

Fri, Sep 25, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 37%

@ Bosnia & Herzegovina

Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 67%

1–1

vs Northern Ireland

Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%

2–0

🇹🇷 Turkey

Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 17%

Mon, Sep 28, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 30%

Fri, Sep 25, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 15%

vs USA

Fri, Jun 26, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 26%

3–2

vs Paraguay

Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%

0–1