UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 5
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Italy vs France Prediction & Win Probability

France has a 49% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.

Rating 1877 · World #12
Form: WDWLD
VS
Rating 2020 · World #3
Form: WDWWL
Model Probability
23%
49%
Draw 28%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand9%37%55%<1%
Italy win 36%34%30%<1%
Draw 1%42%57%<1%
France win <1%35%65%<1%

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand90%10%<1%<1%
Italy win 59%39%2%<1%
Draw 97%3%<1%<1%
France win 100%<1%<1%<1%

League A ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 France 4 10 2020 90% 10% <1% <1%
2 Italy 4 7 1877 9% 37% 55% <1%
3 Belgium 4 6 1894 2% 54% 45% <1%
4 Turkey 4 0 1754 <1% <1% <1% 100%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
ItalyStatFrance
6-2-2Won-Drawn-Lost7-1-2
2.0Avg goals scored2.1
1.1Avg goals conceded1.1
1877Rating2020
#12World rank#3

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
ItalyStatFrance
1Wins (6 meetings, 1 draw)4
1Last 5 meetings (1 draw)3
1.33Average goals2.17
Last meeting (Fri, Oct 2, 2026, Nations League): France 1–1 Italy