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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 4
Mon, Oct 5, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

France vs Belgium Prediction & Win Probability

France has a 57% chance to win, with a 25% chance of a draw.

Rating 2009 · World #3
Form: LLWWW
VS
Rating 1890 · World #10
Form: LWDWD
Model Probability
57%
18%
Draw 25%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand65%22%10%3%
France win 78%16%5%1%
Draw 57%26%13%4%
Belgium win 36%37%21%7%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand18%34%30%18%
France win 7%37%34%22%
Draw 23%33%28%16%
Belgium win 46%30%18%7%

League A ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– France 0 0 2009 65% 22% 10% 3%
– Belgium 0 0 1890 18% 34% 30% 18%
– Italy 0 0 1866 13% 30% 34% 23%
– Turkey 0 0 1780 4% 13% 26% 57%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
FranceStatBelgium
8-0-2Won-Drawn-Lost4-5-1
2.7Avg goals scored2.5
1.1Avg goals conceded1.0
2009Rating1890
#3World rank#10

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
FranceStatBelgium
5Wins (8 meetings, 2 draws)1
5Last 5 meetings (0 draws)0
1.5Average goals0.88
Last meeting (Mon, Oct 14, 2024, Nations League): Belgium 1–2 France

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France

vs England
Sat, Jul 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 43%
4–6
vs Spain
Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 33%
0–2
vs Morocco
Thu, Jul 9, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 57%
2–0
@ Paraguay
Sat, Jul 4, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
1–0
vs Sweden
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
3–0

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium

@ Spain
Fri, Jul 10, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
1–2
@ USA
Tue, Jul 7, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 41%
4–1
vs Senegal
Wed, Jul 1, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 47%
2–2
@ New Zealand
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 70%
5–1
vs Iran
Sun, Jun 21, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
0–0