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Ligue 1
Sun, May 16, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST

Marseille vs Lens Prediction & Win Probability

Lens has a 38% chance to win.

1-0-4 · Rating 1764
Form: LLLLW
VS
1-1-3 · Rating 1842
Form: LDLLW
Model Probability
34%
38%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Lens

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 2.0%17.4%11.8%2.3%<1%
If Win 2.6%21.9%12.1%1.4%<1%
If Draw 1.6%16.8%10.8%1.8%<1%
If Lose 1.1%13.7%10.0%2.5%<1%

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.6%2.7%12.2%3.9%
If Win <1%4.0%4.2%9.3%2.5%
If Draw <1%2.8%2.5%11.8%4.3%
If Lose <1%2.2%2.3%13.1%4.9%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MarseilleStatLens
5Games played5
1.4Avg goals scored1.8
1.6Avg goals conceded1.8
20% / 0% / 80%Win / Draw / Loss20% / 20% / 60%
33% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MarseilleStatLens
8All-time wins (17 meetings, 2 draws)7
3Last 5 meetings (0 draws)2
1.5Average goals1.1
Last meeting (2026-01-24): Marseille 3–1 Lens