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Ligue 1
Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · 7:45 PM BST

Troyes vs Marseille Prediction & Win Probability

Marseille has a 38% chance to win.

1-1-3 · Rating 1690
Form: LLLWD
VS
1-0-4 · Rating 1764
Form: LLLLW
Model Probability
34%
38%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%3.5%2.7%11.6%4.9%
If Win <1%5.0%4.4%7.4%1.8%
If Draw <1%2.7%2.7%12.3%4.1%
If Lose <1%1.2%2.2%15.9%6.7%

Troyes

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%<1%<1%26.1%19.8%
If Win <1%1.2%<1%21.7%11.2%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%29.0%18.1%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%31.2%26.7%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

TroyesStatMarseille
5Games played5
0.8Avg goals scored1.4
2.2Avg goals conceded1.6
20% / 20% / 60%Win / Draw / Loss20% / 0% / 80%
0% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
TroyesStatMarseille
1All-time wins (10 meetings, 2 draws)7
0Last 5 meetings (1 draws)4
0.8Average goals2.2
Last meeting (2023-04-16): Marseille 3–1 Troyes