Ligue 1 Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | Relegation playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSG |
95.8% | 99.7% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 |  Lyon |
1.1% | 40.2% | 13.0% | 11.0% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 |  Monaco |
<1% | 36.7% | 13.7% | 11.1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 |  Lille |
<1% | 33.1% | 13.4% | 11.5% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 |  Rennes |
<1% | 22.0% | 11.5% | 11.4% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 |  Paris FC |
<1% | 19.9% | 12.0% | 10.8% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 |  Marseille |
<1% | 18.9% | 11.1% | 10.9% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 |  Lens |
<1% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 1.7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg |
<1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 1.0% |
| 10 |  Brest |
<1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 1.3% |
| 11 |  Nice |
<1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 1.3% |
| 12 |  Lorient |
<1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 9.8% | 1.6% |
| 13 |  Toulouse |
<1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% |
| 14 |  Auxerre |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.2% | 23.5% | 6.8% |
| 15 |  Angers |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 29.4% | 12.1% |
| 16 |  Troyes |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 32.8% | 16.0% |
| 17 |  Le Mans |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 33.8% | 18.0% |
| 18 |  Le Havre |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 32.9% | 39.0% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 18th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG |
95.8 | 3.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Lyon |
1.1 | 22.0 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Monaco |
<1 | 19.2 | 16.6 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Lille |
<1 | 17.4 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Rennes |
<1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Paris FC |
<1 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Marseille |
<1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Lens |
<1 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 |
| Strasbourg |
<1 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Brest |
<1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| Nice |
<1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Lorient |
<1 | <1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| Toulouse |
<1 | <1 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.3 |
| Auxerre |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 6.8 |
| Angers |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 12.1 |
| Troyes |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 15.9 | 16.9 | 16.0 |
| Le Mans |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 13.3 | 15.7 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Le Havre |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 13.3 | 19.6 | 39.0 |