Ligue 1 Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | Relegation playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSG |
61.3% | 90.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 |  Monaco |
16.6% | 59.3% | 12.3% | 8.6% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 |  Lyon |
7.3% | 37.1% | 13.4% | 11.1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 |  Lille |
4.6% | 28.7% | 13.7% | 11.3% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 |  Rennes |
3.3% | 23.5% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 1.4% | <1% |
| 6 |  Lens |
2.4% | 18.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 2.1% | <1% |
| 7 |  Paris FC |
2.2% | 15.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 2.3% | <1% |
| 8 |  Strasbourg |
1.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 3.7% | <1% |
| 9 |  Marseille |
<1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 10.7% | 4.3% |
| 10 |  Angers |
<1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 11.9% | 4.0% |
| 11 |  Lorient |
<1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 15.2% | 5.4% |
| 12 |  Toulouse |
<1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 14.5% | 5.5% |
| 13 |  Brest |
<1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 18.5% | 8.3% |
| 14 |  Auxerre |
<1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 19.0% | 9.1% |
| 15 |  Le Mans |
<1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 20.3% | 9.0% |
| 16 |  Nice |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.1% | 25.9% | 15.3% |
| 17 |  Le Havre |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.2% | 25.8% | 17.4% |
| 18 |  Troyes |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.0% | 27.2% | 19.2% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 18th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG |
61.3 | 20.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Monaco |
16.6 | 25.4 | 17.3 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Lyon |
7.3 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Lille |
4.6 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Rennes |
3.3 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Lens |
2.4 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | <1 | <1 |
| Paris FC |
2.2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | <1 | <1 |
| Strasbourg |
1.3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | <1 |
| Marseille |
<1 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Angers |
<1 | <1 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Lorient |
<1 | <1 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 |
| Toulouse |
<1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 5.5 |
| Brest |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| Auxerre |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 9.1 |
| Le Mans |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| Nice |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 13.7 | 15.3 |
| Le Havre |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 17.4 |
| Troyes |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 14.9 | 19.2 |