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Derby vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Win Probability

Middlesbrough has a 43% chance to win.
Championship
Tue, Mar 16, 2027 · 7:45 PM GMT
Championship
Derby
2-4-9Rating 1591
Form: WLLDL
vs
Model Probability
30%
Draw 27%
43%
Championship
Middlesbrough
8-5-2Rating 1702
Form: DLWWD

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Middlesbrough

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now 9.3%20.8%57.5%<1%
If Win 12.8%26.1%56.8%<1%
If Draw 7.9%18.1%59.6%<1%
If Lose 7.0%16.4%55.9%<1%

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%<1%54.9%
If Win <1%<1%<1%46.6%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%54.5%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%59.4%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

DerbyStatMiddlesbrough
15Games played15
0.9Avg goals scored2.0
2.0Avg goals conceded1.3
13% / 27% / 60%Win / Draw / Loss53% / 33% / 13%
12% Home win % / Away win % 38%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
DerbyStatMiddlesbrough
8All-time wins (27 meetings, 7 draws)12
2Last 5 meetings (0 draws)3
1.1Average goals1.3
Last meeting (2026-01-01): Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough