Championship Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham |
51.4% | 73.4% | 24.4% | <1% |
| 2 |  Wolves |
20.2% | 44.3% | 45.5% | <1% |
| 3 |  Southampton |
11.4% | 27.4% | 54.1% | <1% |
| 4 |  Swansea |
4.4% | 12.1% | 49.8% | 1.0% |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough |
3.7% | 11.3% | 50.8% | 1.2% |
| 6 |  West Brom |
1.5% | 5.0% | 38.9% | 3.3% |
| 7 |  Millwall |
1.1% | 3.7% | 34.2% | 4.6% |
| 8 |  QPR |
1.1% | 3.5% | 31.3% | 5.1% |
| 9 |  Birmingham |
<1% | 2.5% | 29.2% | 6.9% |
| 10 |  Bristol City |
<1% | 2.6% | 27.4% | 6.5% |
| 11 |  Wrexham |
<1% | 2.5% | 28.0% | 7.2% |
| 12 |  Norwich |
<1% | 1.8% | 23.6% | 9.6% |
| 13 |  Lincoln |
<1% | 1.7% | 21.9% | 10.0% |
| 14 |  Stoke |
<1% | 1.2% | 19.6% | 11.2% |
| 15 |  Charlton |
<1% | 1.3% | 19.2% | 11.8% |
| 16 |  Blackburn |
<1% | 1.1% | 18.4% | 12.1% |
| 17 |  Burnley |
<1% | 1.3% | 18.2% | 13.9% |
| 18 |  Sheffield Utd |
<1% | 1.2% | 16.7% | 13.4% |
| 19 |  Portsmouth |
<1% | <1% | 14.3% | 17.8% |
| 20 |  Bolton |
<1% | <1% | 9.5% | 24.1% |
| 21 |  Watford |
<1% | <1% | 8.7% | 26.7% |
| 22 |  Derby |
<1% | <1% | 7.3% | 30.5% |
| 23 |  Cardiff |
<1% | <1% | 6.1% | 33.4% |
| 24 |  Preston |
<1% | <1% | 2.9% | 49.5% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 24th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham |
51.4 | 21.9 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Wolves |
20.2 | 24.1 | 16.0 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Southampton |
11.4 | 16.0 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Swansea |
4.4 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Middlesbrough |
3.7 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| West Brom |
1.5 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | <1 |
| Millwall |
1.1 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | <1 |
| QPR |
1.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Birmingham |
<1 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Bristol City |
<1 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Wrexham |
<1 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Norwich |
<1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Lincoln |
<1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Stoke |
<1 | <1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Charlton |
<1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| Blackburn |
<1 | <1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| Burnley |
<1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Sheffield Utd |
<1 | <1 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| Portsmouth |
<1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Bolton |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| Watford |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 9.2 |
| Derby |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| Cardiff |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 12.3 |
| Preston |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 13.9 | 24.8 |