Capitals @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Capitals 1 - Lightning 3
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Washington
Capitals
1-0 Rating 1525
Form: WWWWW
1 – 3
Model Probability
46%
54%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.5
Tampa Bay
Lightning
0-1 Rating 1535
Form: WLWLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Capitals Lightning
All-time wins 94 64
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average goals 3.3 2.7
Last meeting 3 5

Key Season Stats

Stat Capitals Lightning
Games played 1 1
Avg goals scored 5.0 1.0
Avg goals conceded 2.0 5.0
Win percentage 100% 0%
Away win % / Home win % 100% -