Final Score: Canadiens 2 - Lightning 3
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Canadiens @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Canadiens
49-34 Rating 1541
Form: WLWLW
Model Probability
46%
54%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.6
Lightning
50-33 Rating 1551
Form: LWWLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Canadiens Lightning
All-time wins 62 75
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average goals 2.6 2.8
Last meeting 4 3

Key Season Stats

Stat Canadiens Lightning
Games played 83 83
Avg goals scored 3.5 3.5
Avg goals conceded 3.1 2.8
Win percentage 59% 60%
Away win % / Home win % 60% 62%