Final Score: Lightning 1 - Canadiens 2
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Lightning @ Canadiens
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 75 | 60 |
| Last 5 meetings | 3 | 2 |
| Average goals | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Last meeting | 1 | 4 |
| Stat | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 78 | 78 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Win percentage | 62% | 59% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 59% | 59% |
Recent Results
Lightning
@ Ottawa Senators
Apr 7, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 8
2-6
@ Buffalo Sabres
Apr 6, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
vs Boston Bruins
Apr 4, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 4
3-1
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Apr 2, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 9
6-3
vs Montreal Canadiens
Mar 31, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs Nashville Predators
Mar 29, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
vs Ottawa Senators
Mar 28, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
vs Seattle Kraken
Mar 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Minnesota Wild
Mar 24, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 9
6-3
@ Calgary Flames
Mar 22, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
Canadiens
vs Florida Panthers
Apr 7, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
vs New Jersey Devils
Apr 5, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 3
0-3
@ New Jersey Devils
Apr 4, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
@ New York Rangers
Apr 2, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 31, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
@ Carolina Hurricanes
Mar 29, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 4
3-1
@ Nashville Predators
Mar 28, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Mar 26, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 3
2-1
vs Carolina Hurricanes
Mar 24, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
vs New York Islanders
Mar 21, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 10
7-3