Final Score: Senators 2 - Lightning 4
Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

Senators @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Senators
38-34 Rating 1522
Form: WWWWL
Model Probability
42%
58%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.8
Lightning
44-27 Rating 1559
Form: WWLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Senators Lightning
All-time wins 71 53
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average goals 3.5 2.9
Last meeting 5 4

Key Season Stats

Stat Senators Lightning
Games played 72 71
Avg goals scored 3.4 3.7
Avg goals conceded 3.1 2.8
Win percentage 53% 62%
Away win % / Home win % 54% 62%