Final Score: Maple Leafs 2 - Senators 5
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Maple Leafs @ Senators
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 89 | 87 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average goals | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Last meeting | 2 | 5 |
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 70 | 68 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Win percentage | 41% | 51% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 36% | 52% |
Recent Results
Maple Leafs
vs Carolina Hurricanes
Mar 20, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs New York Islanders
Mar 17, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 4
1-3
@ Minnesota Wild
Mar 15, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
@ Buffalo Sabres
Mar 14, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
vs Anaheim Ducks
Mar 12, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 10
6-4
@ Montreal Canadiens
Mar 10, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 4
1-3
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 7, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
@ New York Rangers
Mar 5, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 8
2-6
@ New Jersey Devils
Mar 4, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 2, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
Senators
vs New York Islanders
Mar 19, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Washington Capitals
Mar 18, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs San Jose Sharks
Mar 15, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 11
7-4
vs Anaheim Ducks
Mar 14, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 2
2-0
vs Montreal Canadiens
Mar 11, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
@ Vancouver Canucks
Mar 9, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 2
2-0
@ Seattle Kraken
Mar 7, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 11
7-4
@ Calgary Flames
Mar 5, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
@ Edmonton Oilers
Mar 3, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 9
4-5
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
Feb 28, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2