Final Score: Maple Leafs 1 - Canadiens 3
Tuesday, March 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Maple Leafs @ Canadiens
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 112 | 144 |
| Last 5 meetings | 3 | 2 |
| Average goals | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Last meeting | 1 | 2 |
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 64 | 62 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Win percentage | 42% | 55% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 37% | 57% |
Recent Results
Maple Leafs
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 7, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
@ New York Rangers
Mar 5, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 8
2-6
@ New Jersey Devils
Mar 4, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 2, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
vs Ottawa Senators
Feb 28, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
@ Florida Panthers
Feb 26, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 6
1-5
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 25, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
@ Edmonton Oilers
Feb 3, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
@ Calgary Flames
Feb 2, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
@ Vancouver Canucks
Jan 31, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
Canadiens
@ Los Angeles Kings
Mar 7, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
@ Anaheim Ducks
Mar 6, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 11
5-6
@ San Jose Sharks
Mar 3, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 12
5-7
vs Washington Capitals
Feb 28, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 8
6-2
vs New York Islanders
Feb 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
@ Winnipeg Jets
Feb 4, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 6
5-1
@ Minnesota Wild
Feb 2, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
@ Buffalo Sabres
Jan 31, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
vs Colorado Avalanche
Jan 29, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 10
7-3
vs Vegas Golden Knights
Jan 27, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2