Final Score: Canadiens 3 - Lightning 2
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Canadiens @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Canadiens
50-36 Rating 1537
Form: LWLWL
Model Probability
45%
55%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.6
Lightning
52-34 Rating 1555
Form: LLWLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Canadiens Lightning
All-time wins 63 77
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average goals 2.6 2.8
Last meeting 2 3

Key Season Stats

Stat Canadiens Lightning
Games played 86 86
Avg goals scored 3.4 3.5
Avg goals conceded 3.1 2.8
Win percentage 58% 60%
Away win % / Home win % 58% 63%