Final Score: Canadiens 2 - Lightning 1
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
Canadiens @ Lightning
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Canadiens | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 64 | 78 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average goals | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Last meeting | 0 | 1 |
| Stat | Canadiens | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 88 | 88 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Win percentage | 58% | 60% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 59% | 61% |
Recent Results
Canadiens
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
May 1, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 1
0-1
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 29, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 24, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 21, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 19, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
@ Philadelphia Flyers
Apr 14, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
@ New York Islanders
Apr 12, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Apr 11, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 9, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 3
2-1
Lightning
@ Montreal Canadiens
May 1, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 1
1-0
vs Montreal Canadiens
Apr 29, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
@ Montreal Canadiens
Apr 26, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Montreal Canadiens
Apr 24, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
vs Montreal Canadiens
Apr 21, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
vs Montreal Canadiens
Apr 19, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs New York Rangers
Apr 15, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
vs Detroit Red Wings
Apr 13, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
@ Boston Bruins
Apr 11, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 3
2-1
@ Montreal Canadiens
Apr 9, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 3
1-2