Marlins @ Cubs

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Marlins 3 - Cubs 2
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET
Miami
Marlins
77-80 Rating 1488
Form: WLLLW
3 – 2
Model Probability
40%
60%
Projected margin: Chicago Cubs +0.8
Chicago
Cubs
87-70 Rating 1535
Form: WLWWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Marlins Cubs
All-time wins 122 128
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.3 4.7
Last meeting 8 2

Key Season Stats

Stat Marlins Cubs
Games played 157 157
Avg runs scored 4.5 5.3
Avg runs conceded 4.4 4.4
Win percentage 49% 55%
Away win % / Home win % 41% 57%